Chapter 1 Introduction
5.2 Numerical Results
5.2.3 Technology Capacity
5.2 Numerical Results 89 horizon, nuclear plants operate at the highest annual capacity utilization factors (CUF) (80%) followed by coal (57%-70%). Hydro power plants’ CUF is around 50%. Wind and solar power plants operate at about 30% and 18% annual CUF respectively.
Year and scenario wise variation of capacity mix
Generation share of power producing technologies for 2017, 2030, 2040, and 2050 in various cases is illustrated in Section 5.2.1. Figure 5.10 outlines capacity implication of those technologies in the same cases. The number of cases for illustrating results of a year is similar to that detailed in the Section 5.2.1. In 2017, each model case has a similar capacity mix as expected. 53% of total capacity is constituted of 40 GW of coal followed by 19 GW of large hydro (25%). Gas and wind each having 4 GW capacity, have 6% share. Solar PV capacity is around 2.3 GW (3%).
0 25 50 75
CR.LL.SR.WR.TR.
Model Case
GW
Year 2017
0 75 150 225
CH.LL.SR.WR.TR. CR.LL.SR.WR.TR.
Model Case
GW
Year 2030
0 150 300 450 600
CH.LL.SR.WR.TR. CR.LL.SH.WR.TR. CR.LL.SL.WR.TR. CR.LL.SR.WR.TR.
Model Case
GW
Year 2040
0 400 800 1200
CH.LL.SH.WH.TR.CH.LL.SH.WL.TR.CH.LL.SH.WR.TR.CH.LL.SL.WH.TR.CH.LL.SL.WL.TR.CH.LL.SL.WR.TR.CH.LL.SR.WH.TR.CH.LL.SR.WL.TR.CH.LL.SR.WR.TR.CR.LL.SH.WR.TR.CR.LL.SL.WR.TR.CR.LL.SR.WR.TR.
Model Case
GW
Year 2050
Biomass Coal
Gas HydroL
HydroS Lignite
Nuclear Oil
Solar Wind
Figure 5.10Capacity mix in 2017, 2030, 2040, and 2050 for various CO2price, solar and wind cost scenarios
In 2030, ref or no CO2price cases have almost 13% higher coal-based capacity (96 GW) than high CO2price cases (84 GW). Large-hydro capacity increases to 53 GW in CH cases and 25 GW in CR case, from 19 GW in 2017. The capacity of solar (50 GW) and wind (24
GW) are constant irrespective of scenario variation. In 2030, an increase of solar and wind capacity is almost 25 and 6 times their values in 2017. Around 7 GW of nuclear and small hydro capacity installation is also observed in all the scenarios.
In 2040, solar and wind-based generators share 55% (317 GW) and 17% (96 GW) of capacity respectively in CH case. On the other hand, the capacity share of RE technologies in CR cases varies from 46%-60% (180-285 GW) according to solar cost scenarios. The share of wind and solar based capacities are in the range of 5%-11% (24-41 GW) and 35%-52%
(138-250 GW) respectively. Large hydro-based generation capacity is around 53 GW and 36 GW in CH and CR cases respectively. Coal contributes 83 GW capacity (14%) in CH scenario, whereas in CR cases its capacity ranges from 128-141 GW. Nuclear and small hydro-based generation capacity is constant at 7 GW respectively in all scenarios.
In 2050, the share of RE capacity (solar and wind) is around 88% in CH cases, as compared to 61%-74% in CR cases in the overall capacity portfolio. Among high CO2price cases, the highest wind capacity observed is 324 GW when solar cost is high and wind cost is low. On the other hand, highest solar capacity is 1098 GW when solar cost is low and wind cost is high. In no CO2 price cases, solar capacity reaches approximately 357 GW in SH scenario and 560 GW in SL scenario. The capacity of wind is almost 57 GW when wind cost is low and the solar cost is high, and 28 GW when solar cost is low and wind cost is high. The capacity of coal is higher for no CO2 price cases as expected. For high CO2price cases, coal capacity is almost 76 GW, whereas it varies from 127 GW to 169 GW depending on RE capacity penetration levels in CR cases. Total hydro capacity is constant in all cases at 60 GW. CO2price does not encourage building new gas power plants as RE technologies are more effective to reduce CO2emission intensity. Gas based capacity is seen to be mere 1-2 GW in CH cases, as compared to 11-20 GW in no CO2price cases. Total installed generation capacity for CR cases is lower than CH cases, due to higher utilization of coal-based generator and low capacity factor of RE plants.
Year and scenario wise variation of solar, wind and coal capacity
Coal, hydro, solar, and wind are important energy sources for future power generation. There is no prominent scenario wise variation in hydro capacity. Therefore, capacity evolution of solar, wind, and coal is illustrated in detail in Figure 5.11 A), B), and C) respectively, for various model cases. For illustration, three scenarios of CO2price, solar cost, and wind cost are chosen. Coal price and storage cost are set to their reference values. Result for each technology is presented in three separate graphs, indicating high, low, and ref CO2prices respectively.
5.2 Numerical Results 91
CH_LL_TR CL_LL_TR CR_LL_TR
2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050
0 300 600 900
Year
GW
A) Solar Capacity
CH_LL_TR CL_LL_TR CR_LL_TR
2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050
0 100 200 300
Year
GW
B) Wind Capacity
CH_LL_TR CL_LL_TR CR_LL_TR
2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050
60 100 140
Year
GW
C) Coal Capacity
SH_WH SH_WL
SH_WR SL_WH
SL_WL SL_WR
SR_WH SR_WL
SR_WR
Figure 5.11Scenario wise evolution of solar, wind, and coal capacity in CO2price, solar, and wind cost scenarios
In reference CO2price scenario, solar capacity reaches 50 GW in 2030, irrespective of scenario variations. Afterward, low solar cost takes capacity to approximately 567 GW in 2050. In reference and high solar cost scenarios, solar capacities are around 450 and 343 GW in 2050. Wind cost has a negligible effect of changing solar capacity addition. In all high CO2price cases, solar follows similar capacity addition trend up to 2040; reaching 317 GW. Subsequent effect of solar and wind cost on solar capacity investment is seen in 2050.
In SR, SL, and SH scenarios, solar capacity in 2050 ranges from 937-1051 GW, 1070-1098 GW, and 796-907 GW respectively according to variation in wind cost. Finally, for low CO2 price cases, the system installs 126 GW of solar capacity in 2035 in all cases, following a similar increasing trend. Without any alteration of solar cost, capacity goes up to 685 GW in 2050, when wind cost is high. In high and low solar cost scenarios, solar capacity varies in the range of 566-842 GW (Figure 5.11 A).
Wind capacity reaches 24 GW for all reference CO2price cases in 2030. Total capacity increases to 57 GW in 2050, with low wind cost and high solar cost. Around 41 GW of capacity is seen in reference wind cost cases in both SL and SR scenarios, but capacity increases to 53 GW when solar cost is high. High wind cost and low solar cost restricts wind capacity to 28 GW only. High CO2price leads to an exponential increase of wind capacity to 96 GW in 2040 for all cases. Further, 1.5-3.4 times increase in capacity is observed for low wind cost cases. Total wind capacity varies in a range of 120-279 GW for various cases under the influence of solar and wind cost in 2050. In all low CO2price cases, wind capacity reaches 24 GW in 2030. For reference wind cost, it increases further to 175 GW in 2050 with high solar cost. For low and high wind cases, capacity varies in the range of 137-215 GW and 68-115 GW, reflecting the influence of solar cost (Figure 5.11 B).
Coal capacity increases steadily in all scenarios to around 96 GW in 2030, when there is no CO2price imposed on the system. Afterward, for high solar cost cases, capacity increases to 170 GW in 2050. Coal capacity is approximately 130 GW and 150 GW respectively, when solar cost is at the ref and high levels. For all high CO2price cases, coal capacity increases to 85 GW in 2035; afterward, it decreases gradually to 76 GW in 2050. There is no scenario wise variation in the installed coal capacity in this scenario. On the other hand, for low CO2 price cases, after reaching 93 GW in 2030, a variation of 23 GW (87-110 GW) is observed in various cases for 2050. (Figure 5.11 C).
Year and region wise variation of generation capacity
Figures 5.12 A), B) and C) illustrates the impact of solar, wind, and coal costs on their own capacity development respectively. They also outline the regional distribution of capacity evolution of technologies for future years. In all solar cost cases, major solar installations
5.2 Numerical Results 93
CR.LL.SH.WR.TR. CR.LL.SL.WR.TR. CR.LL.SR.WR.TR.
2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050
0 50 100 150
Year
GW
CH DL
HP HR
JK PB
RJ UT
UU
A) Regional solar capacity evolution in solar cost scenarios
CR.LL.SR.WH.TR. CR.LL.SR.WL.TR. CR.LL.SR.WR.TR.
2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050
10 20 30 40
Year
GW
RJ
B) Regional wind capacity evolution in wind cost scenarios
CR.LH.SR.WR.TR. CR.LL.SR.WR.TR. CR.LV.SR.WR.TR.
2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050
0 25 50 75
Year
GW
CH DL
HP HR
JK PB
RJ UT
UU
C) Regional coal capacity evolution in coal cost scenarios
Figure 5.12Region wise evolution of solar, wind and coal capacity in respective cost scenarios
regions are UU, RJ, PB, and HR. Solar capacity addition in UU starts from 2030, and it varies from 105 GW in SH scenario to 120 GW in SL scenario for 2050. Though UU has highest installed solar capacity in SH and SR scenario, in SL scenario, maximum capacity is installed in HR (147 GW). In RJ, solar capacity addition rates are higher in later years, contrary to the other three regions. In all three wind cost scenarios, installation is only seen in RJ. Total wind capacity for WH, WR and WL scenarios are 30 GW, 41 GW and 46 GW respectively.
Wind capacity addition rate in RJ is higher than solar in initial years. Highest coal capacity is in UU, followed by HR, RJ, and PB. Due to limited coal supply in LH scenario, total coal capacity is almost constant from 2035 in all regions, except UU. Capacity in UU reaches 57 GW in 2045 and goes down to 54 GW in 2050 in LH scenario. In LL and LV cases, coal capacity in UU is around 85 GW. In other regions, similar coal capacity increase is observed for LL and LV cases after 2040.