Chapter 1 Introduction
5.2 Numerical Results
5.2.5 Coal Supply
5.2 Numerical Results 99 generation curtailment. Energy storage technologies are unique devices to reduce curtailment (via energy time shifting) and help in quick system balancing. Figure 5.18 outlines storage discharge variation with respect to total solar generation for three CO2price cases; coal price and wind costs are set to ref scenario. Each point in the plots indicates a model case, and colour of the points denotes solar cost scenario groups. It is observed in the three plots that, storage activity (discharge) increases with increasing solar penetration due to CO2 price effect in 2050. For each CO2price scenario, solar-based generation linearly increases with the decrease in solar cost. Again in each solar cost scenario group, lower storage cost leads to higher solar based generation (storage cost for each point is labeled). Therefore it can be inferred that, if there is existing feasibility of solar energy penetration, energy storage is a key enabling technology for its integration.
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Figure 5.18Storage discharge vs Solar generation in different CO2price and storage cost scenarios in 2050
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Figure 5.19Total coal supply in various
full available coal irrespective of solar cost scenarios. This indicates need of ramping up the coal production rate significantly from the current rate. In low (LL) and very low (LV) coal price cases overall coal consumption increases by approximately 1.6 and 1.84 times respectively in 2050 with respect to LH cases when solar cost is at ref level. Effect of CO2 price is drastic on coal consumption starting from 2035, as outlined in figure 5.19 B). Coal consumption in high and low CO2price (CH, CL) cases are approximately 0.015, and 0.53 times that of reference or no CO2price scenario in 2050.
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Mine wise coal supply, CR.LH.SR.WR.TR
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Mine wise coal supply, CR.LL.SR.WR.TR
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CHH JHA MAD ODI SA_KN UTT WES
Figure 5.20Mine wise coal supply in three coal price scenarios
Figure 5.20 outlines mine wise coal production over the planning horizon, and Figure 5.21 region wise consumption for three coal price scenarios when other parameters are set to ref. In both LH and LL scenarios foreign import of coal (SA_KN) is prominent upto 2035, and 2030 respectively. In 2025, foreign imports are respectively almost 22% and 14%
in the two scenarios. In LV case, domestic production is sufficient to meet the future coal
5.2 Numerical Results 101 requirement. In LH case system imports coal from all the available mining regions in all future years.
Among the total domestic production, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, are the major coal producing states in all the scenarios. In 2050, their share of production in LH, LL, and LV cases are 60%, 74%, and 84%. Rest of the coal demand is satisfied by Odisha, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal in LH scenario, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh in the LL scenario, and Uttar Pradesh in LV scenario. Region wise annual coal consumption is according to regional growth of coal based generation capacity and their activity profile. UU, HR, PB, and RJ are the main consumer of coal in all three coal price cases with UU having 54%-60% share in all coal price cases.
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Figure 5.21Region wise coal consumption in three coal price scenarios
Figure 5.22 indicates coal supply from mines to the regions in 2050 to outline which coal mines supply coal to which region in three coal price cases. In LH case Chattisgarh supplies coal to Rajasthan (496 PJ) and Haryana (942 PJ). Coal for Punjab comes from Madhya Pradesh. Uttar Pradesh procures coal from all the mines except CHH. In LL case Chattisgarh supplies 47% and 24% of its production to Haryana and Rajasthan. The rests is supplied to Uttar Pradesh. Madhya Pradesh supplies 70% of its production to Uttar Pradesh and rests to Punjab. Uttar Pradesh also utilizes its domestic production and import coal from Jharkhand to meet rest of its demand. In LV case Uttar Pradesh procures 57% of its coal demand from Madhya Pradesh and rest from Chattisgarh (14%) and own production (29%).
Coal prices calculated by the model in these three cases for four high coal consuming regions are indicated in figure 5.23 for four selected years (2017, 2030, 2040, 2050). In LH case, an increasing trend of coal price is observed in all scenarios as expected. Increase in price is almost 1.5 times in 2050 compared to 2017 level in all regions. In these cases, the lowest price is observed in Uttar Pradesh (295 INR/ GJ) in 2050 due to closeness to mining regions. Highest coal price is in Punjab (361 INR/ GJ). In LL case, the significant price reduction is observed in all regions post 2030. Compared to 2030, highest price reduction is
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Figure 5.22Coal supply from mines to regions in 2050 in coal price cases
observed in Uttar Pradesh (36%), while lowest reduction is in Punjab (25%) in 2050. In LV case almost 27% reduction in price observed in 2050 compared to 2017 level in UU; while for Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan it is almost 11%, 16%, and 15% respectively.
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Figure 5.23Regional coal price in coal price cases