NOTE ON EXIT STRATEGY OF LOCKDOWN

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1 | P a g e F e d e r a t i o n o f I n d i a n C h a m b e r s o f C o m m e r c e a n d I n d u s t r y

NOTE ON EXIT STRATEGY OF LOCKDOWN

The prompt and timely action by the government through the nationwide lockdown has not only helped to reduce the risk of community transmission but has also provided the much needed time to prepare for an unforeseen spike of infected cases that would have been overwhelming for the healthcare systems thereby leading to huge morbidity and mortality in our population.

As the government and all its agencies are aggressively working towards flattening the novel coronavirus infection curve, national leaders and officials are also debating exit strategies and trying to work out a comprehensive framework towards it. Though, India in the global context, so far has not seen larger number of cases who would need hospitalization, however, the increase of infected people in the past few days may lead to a situation wherein

Current status: the lockdown has been able the achieve the following:

1. To identify sources, primary and secondary contacts, of COVID 19 infections and therefore plan action for containment

2. To identify areas classified as ‘Hotspots’

3. To gain time to create infrastructure and manpower which can better handle large volumes of patients 4. Better understanding of the virulence, pattern of COVID 19 and therefore plan better

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more and more patients may require respiratory assistance and intensive care. At the same time, for a country like India we also can’t afford to have a prolonged lockdown that lasts for months.

The exit strategy, thus, should aim towards bringing about a fine balance that on one hand normalizes economic and social activity and yet contains the disease from spreading and getting out of control. One of the big gaps that we are currently facing is the lack of mass testing capability which is limiting our understanding on the true scale of spread of the disease. It is extremely important at this stage to augment mass testing and ensure a disciplined and a cautious approach adopted by the grassroot functionaries and community duly monitored by local authorities.

Finally, the disease is such and its course so unpredictable that policy will ALWAYS be EVOLUTIONARY. Day to day monitoring with constant alacrity in changing strategies will be the order of the plan.

Principles of exit strategy

• To plan the exit to lock down with maximum safety to humanity

• To continue to implement Social Distancing at all costs.

• To plan resumption of business to reduce impact to economy, keeping the point 1 as highest priority

• To protect the vulnerable population which will increase the burden of health care cost, morbidity and mortality

• Identify priority for resumption of normalcy

• To identify Hotspots and ensure that such areas remain under restrictions of movement to and from.

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3 | P a g e F e d e r a t i o n o f I n d i a n C h a m b e r s o f C o m m e r c e a n d I n d u s t r y A: No COVID Cases and no migration of workers B: No COVID cases and there is migration of workers

• Cordon of such areas

• Allow all Sectors all services to operate

• Allow all local procurement

• Allow Transportation of Goods to Non COVID areas freely

• All must use Aarogya Setu App. If travel to COVID Active areas, Re-entry only after testing / or allow Vehicle but use local drivers

• Practice Social distancing

• Cordon of such areas

• Operate special transportation Bus, Rail to such areas can get on only post testing. In some cases, quarantine may be required

• Allow all Sectors to operate

• Allow Transportation of Goods to Non COVID areas freely

• All must use Aarogya Setu App. If travel to COVID Active areas,

• Re-entry only after testing / or allow Vehicle but use local drivers

• Practice Social distancing

C: No New Cases being reported D: New Cases being reported

• Cordon off areas where existing cases located.

• Extend local lock down of these areas for 7 days

• Rapid Testing and

• In these areas allow only Essential Services and Export Sectors, continuous process, with testing of workforce , social distancing

• Rapid testing of all in the locality once no cases allow as A or B

• Extend Lock Down for first 7 days and additional if required

• All should use Aarogya Setu app if have phone

• Rapid testing of all

• Isolation of those testing positive

• Quarantine those in proximity for 14 days

• Only Health Related and Essential Services including Agriculture or those units or sites where they have own worker housing and it is COVID free with no migration of labour.

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Recommendation for “New Normal” and proposed Exit Strategy

Sr. No. Sector/ Stakeholders Affected

FICCI Recommendation (s) Implementing Agency Proposed Exit Strategy

1 Common Citizens Lift lockdown selectively across the country, so that production, distribution, consumption, transportation, and other economic activities resume beginning with districts having no COVID 19 cases.

State Government Remove Lockdown

2 Workforce

(Age Group in 22-39)

The exit from the nation-wide lockdown could be done by permitting healthy persons in the age group 22 to 39 to resume work. This would be a low-risk group from a perspective of putting strain on medical and ICU facilities. This group of over 150 million people could put the wheels of economic activity into motion. Maximum oversight of their activities could be done by older persons through work from home.

The working group would have to carry age proof and ensure that the right demographic come to work, and some level of quarantine infrastructure availability would be the responsibility of employers.

Many senior citizens have their support systems crippled as healthcare staff/support staff not permitted to work due to fear of police. Such cases too should be considered on humanitarian basis and exceptions for home health –

State Government / State Police/ Industry/ Employer

Remove Lockdown

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5 | P a g e F e d e r a t i o n o f I n d i a n C h a m b e r s o f C o m m e r c e a n d I n d u s t r y both organized and unorganised sector to be allowed

under exemptions.

3 High Risk Groups (Elderly citizens, immunocompromised etc.)

Quarantining of high-risk groups such as the elderly and people with health issues from this working group would need to be done at individual home level.

Ministry of Health, State Government / State Police/ Industry/ Employer

Extend Lockdown

4 Healthcare

infrastructure and capacity

Government to enable extensive and quick testing of people at work by ensuring test equipment availability at large factories / project sites / medical facilities or government hospitals in the vicinity of such work centres. Quarantine facilities with medical supervision, food and essentials to be set up in the vicinity of such work centres by Government or through Government aid. Sanitization booths can be set up at each work centre. Large number of masks and sanitisers should be available at all workplaces through Government support.

• Districts and cities should be stratified as High, Medium and Low risk through strict data collection, surveillance and assessment.

• The risk assessment must consider understanding clinical course in the Indian context, viral shedding (both nasopharyngeal and stool—which is

documented, and a particular concern in the south Asian context), pediatric illness in the context of malnourished children.

Ministry of Health &

Family Welfare, State Government (State Health Department, Emergency Services & State Police Force, Disaster

Management) &

Administration of respective organizations

N/A

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• Selective closures may be ordered as circuit breakers based on risk assessment.

• Keep elderly, children under 5 and those with pre- existing medical conditions isolated at home for next 4 weeks.

• Mass production and distribution of cloth masks to be done for community.

• Testing: Since testing is the way out of our houses and normalization of life, it requires a detailed look.

A two-step testing strategy for all post lockdown

Presumptive screening tests

▪ Deploy rapid serological immunoassay testing kits for presumptive diagnosis. Procure home use kits in bulk.

▪ Screening tests must have high sensitivity i.e.

false positives (person does not have disease, but test is positive) are allowed but not a single false negative (person has disease, but test is negative). We can afford people staying at home and retested in formal laboratory settings at the expense of some anxiety but with

minimum danger to community. However, a single carrier let loose in the community can cause havoc, leading to explosive consequences.

▪ In addition to identifying people with Covid-19, it could tell you if someone was once infected

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7 | P a g e F e d e r a t i o n o f I n d i a n C h a m b e r s o f C o m m e r c e a n d I n d u s t r y but then recovered, freeing up her resource for

work.

▪ South Korea won the fight through surveillance testing. China has reopened quickly and is testing in schools and factory gates before every shift. High risk areas remain closed in both.

Confirmatory tests:

▪ Those found positive in screening tests need to be formally tested with RT-PCR confirmatory tests, and isolated and treated as per protocol.

Their contacts need to go in quarantine for due period.

• There must be no letup in efforts to put in place health facilities to meet surge capacities: isolation beds, ICU beds, Ventilators, Staff, Drugs and

Consumables. Same applies for quarantine facilities.

• PPE is critical to life of healthcare staff. Easy access to huge volumes of Full PPE kits (disposable Head to toe Gown, Gloves, N 95 masks) at subsidized rates.

At a rough a calculation, if a 200 bedded hospital is caring for COVID 19 patients with 40 ICU beds and 160 ward beds, the consumption of Kits will be 400- 450 per day. This adds up to approx. INR 4 lakhs cost per day. Availability and cost are huge

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8 | P a g e F e d e r a t i o n o f I n d i a n C h a m b e r s o f C o m m e r c e a n d I n d u s t r y hindrances and these will be at an even higher cost

of lives of doctors, nurses and ward staff if not addressed urgently.

• Rapid training of staff through online platforms, especially for remote areas

• Dedicated ambulance transfer systems

• Mass production of Covid-19 vaccine as and when it is launched to meet the requirements

5 Labour Workforce Management and re-stabilization of migrant labour force on return post April 15/post lockdown and instilling greater confidence, discipline and continued messaging on social distancing by the corporate sector.

An effective ‘messaging’ and ‘package’ for their early return may be worked out by industry and state governments in consultation and DPIIT may drive the process.

DPIIT/ State Govt/ Industry N/A

6 Agriculture/ Labour Harvesting season is on and labour is not available.

District collectors should be advised to ensure full harvesting and MNREGA workers should be used for harvesting.

State Government;

Ministry of Agriculture;

APMC

Remove Lockdown

7 Agriculture • The inputs like seeds, fertilizers etc are not

available to the farmers and this is hampering the plantation of summer crops.

• Movement to mandis for selling crops is another issue. The entire agri-value chain should be opened and facilitated otherwise it could lead to a

State Government;

APMC

Remove Lockdown

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9 | P a g e F e d e r a t i o n o f I n d i a n C h a m b e r s o f C o m m e r c e a n d I n d u s t r y very difficult situation for farmers and agriculture

labour.

8 Agriculture Farmers should be encouraged to sell their produce through e-NAM directly without needing to take the produce physically to APMC centres.

APMC

N/A

9 Meat, Poultry, Fish Strict hygiene requirement to be imposed in wet markets.

Local Market associations, Local Municipal Body;

Police

Remove Lockdown (Subject to adherence to sanitary and hygienic conditions)

10 Meat, Poultry, Fish Cold Chain Logistics required for storage and bringing product to market. Ice manufacturing to be deemed essential service

Central and State Govt.

Ministry of Shipping, Ministry of

Railways, Ministry of Roads Transport & Highways

Remove Lockdown (For Ice manufacturing)

11 Movement of Goods (Essential & Non- Essential)

Movement of all goods traffic without any distinction of essential/non-essential should be allowed immediately.

Already such advisories have been circulated to this effect but on ground it is not being implemented at many places. Police and other local administration needs to be sensitized.

State Government; Police Forces; Local

Administration

Ensure uninterrupted movement

12 Supply of Essential items and

Commodities

• For medical supplies, agri-produce and some other very essential items, army/para-military forces with their vehicles could be deployed. This will obviate the need of intra-state and inter-state permits and help smooth transportation of these critical

commodities.

Army/Para-military Forces/

Customs

N/A

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• Getting Customs to be up, running and efficient is key to ensure supply continuity to hospitals and patients

13 Manufacturing – Essential Goods including Medical devices

Continue as per the current system with some more relaxation in number of manpower working at the plant and warehouses

Empower the companies to decide to operate under guidelines of social distancing instead of allowing States and district administration.

Industry association to be allowed to submit to the Centre the names of companies, their manufacturing/warehousing locations and no of people in each location by shift to work, maintaining social distancing. A central admin manager for each company would be empowered to issue authorization letters to employees along with copy of central letter which must be recognised by the State government. This will address the different on ground interpretations which impedes the smooth operations of the companies.

Industry to enforce hygiene standards and maintain distancing norms

N/A

14 Manufacturing – Non-essential Goods (Outside hotspots)

• Institute COVID 19 standard for manufacturing – the units that are compliant to these standards (in terms social distancing, number of employees at plant as a percentage of manpower, hygiene etc) should be allowed to operate.

• Flexibility to work in shifts to maintain hygiene and social distancing norms

Industry / State Govt./

Third Party to Inspect hygiene standards

Partially remove lockdown

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• There could be regular inspection by Government officials/third party

15 FMCG • Plan gradual end-to-end startup by daily use FMCG categories.

• Gradual start of corporate offices especially for essential category companies.

• Gradual start of end-to-end supply chain for grocery stores.

• Continue focus on hygiene protocols at all the workplaces including staggered shifts, 12 hour working etc.

• Massive public awareness campaign to support essential services people in local communities.

• Ramp up movement for transportation workers at the earliest to re-start supply chain

operations.

• At least companies with established credentials to be authorised to movement passes to

employees.

State Governments, Local Administration, state police forces

16 Retail • Allow stores for walk-in and allow Kiranas to be open for customers with strict enforcement commitment by all to maintain social distancing and health and safety standards.

• This will help the communities source the essential items and considerably reduce panic.

• Ensure safety of customers by making employees wearing masks mandatory

Central and State Governments, Local Administration, state police forces

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• Employees rendering essential services like food and grocery etc., may be allowed to move based on their Identity card and authority letter from the Company.

17 E Commerce • In exit strategy, eCommerce and all its value chain players to be enabled so that supplies are not stopped, and people can stay home

• Call out to eCommerce workers to encourage them to report to work, may be an announcement of insurance schemes for them

• Ensure on ground eCommerce is enabled truly with MHA orders

• Opening up of essential products list

• Include supply chain players in opening up especially small scale sellers supplying essential and select non-essential products.

• Allow nonessentials stuck with prior lockdown orders to be delivered too to unclog the cloggers networks (trucks, warehouses etc). Sectoral players can finish this delivery in 7 days allowing them to concentrate on next phase of products allowed.

Central and State Governments, Local Administration, state police forces

18 Domestic Air Travel • Domestic travel by air should be opened especially between destinations not affected much by COVID 19.

• The aircraft may be run at say 1/3^rd of seating capacity to maintain distance. Tickets could be

Ministry of Civil Aviation Partially remove lockdown

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13 | P a g e F e d e r a t i o n o f I n d i a n C h a m b e r s o f C o m m e r c e a n d I n d u s t r y expensive. This will allow emergency travel by

passengers.

Following should be ensured:

▪ Checked in luggage to be treated with veridical aerosol

▪ Alcohol rub for travellers at entry, exit point.

Aerosol disinfection at security point

▪ Minimum 6 feet distancing to be enforced at all points in the terminal

▪ High risk category should not travel

▪ All passengers/ staff should be masked 19 Public Transport

(Road)

Buses in cities should be increased by roping in private transport operators and people permitted to occupy only window seats on alternate rows. Ola / Ubers can take max 2 passengers per vehicle.

Following should be ensured :

• Public Transports should be disinfected daily

• Social distancing to be maintained at all bus stations

• Seating/berths to ensure distance between travellers

• Suitable disinfection frequently

• Avoid stops at “Hot spots”

• Restrict interstate trains in such states where the incidence of COVID 19 is high

• Senior citizens and high risk individuals should not travel

Ministry of Road Transport

& Highways, State Road Transport Dept, Cab aggregators, Taxi service providers

Remove Lockdown (Subject to social distancing, hygiene and sanitation guidelines)

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• Masks to be worn. All travellers to be encouraged on washing hands and use alcohol rubs.

20 Public Transport (Trains & Metro)

• Limited movement of trains to allow people to travel only for very urgent matters like migrant labour, persons displaced from home, medical urgency, essential services related etc. IRCTC may introduced these options for travel booking.

Following to be ensured:

▪ Social distancing to be maintained at all stations

▪ Seating/berths to ensure distance between travellers

▪ Suitable disinfection frequently

▪ Avoid stops at “Hot spots”

▪ Restrict interstate trains in such states/stations where the incidence of COVID 19 is high

▪ Masks to be worn. All travellers to be

encouraged on washing hands and use alcohol rubs.

▪ Senior citizens and high-risk individuals should not travel

Ministry of Railways Partially remove lockdown

21 Education • Schools, Higher Education Institutions and Training Centres should remain shut for students until 30th April

Ministry of Human Resource Development/

State Education Departments

Extend Lockdown

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• Teaching and non-teaching staff should only start attending schools from 15th April. During these two weeks, faculty to review student’s academic loss and prepare to overcome the same through both face to face and remote online means over remainder schools days of this academic year and over summer vacations

• Staggered opening of schools from 1st May onwards: Divide all grades into two

groups/pools. Each group/pool to attend school every alternative day. This shall reduce

conglomeration by half.

• An online module of compulsory training and a safety toolkit to be developed to protect children and support safe school operations.

Additionally, a guideline needs to be issued by the medical experts who have dealt with the disease on protocols to be followed in case of dealing with a COVID19 suspect at school.

• Nationwide support on conducting online assessments through NCERT, CBSE etc

• Post 30th April, university and colleges should start functioning in a phased manner.

• Faculty and students should come when they have a class which requires class room mode.

Staff should be allowed to work for part of the day through staggered hours.

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• Universities could therefore have staggered hours. Every employee to work on alternate days of the week till May 15th.

• Skill Training Centres should promote soft skills training till April 30th and start physical

interface only after May 15th. From 30th April till 15th May they should assess the backlogs, plan batches (keeping social distancing in mind) etc.

• All the institutions should be thoroughly sanitized before opening up.

22 Hotels Doctors and other support staff who are to be quarantined after treating patients as a mandatory practice, may be put in the hotels (instead of some guest houses etc.) at Government’s cost. This will allow them to access better facilities and will also give hotels some business reeling under tremendous downturn. In U.P., Delhi and Assam this has already started.

Family Welfare / State Health Departments;

Hospitality industry

Extend Lockdown

23 Healthcare Manufacturing

The manufacturing/sourcing of ventilators, personal protective equipments (PPEs) etc. requires immediate push from the short term as well as long term

perspective to mitigate any potential future increase infection rates after lifting of lockdown

Domestic industry needs to be incentivized for capacity building.

Family Welfare / State Health Departments

N/A

24 Industry - Services (IT/ITes)

Industries like IT which can manage working from home should continue to work from home as much as

possible.

State Government &

Administration of

respective organizations

Extend Lockdown

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17 | P a g e F e d e r a t i o n o f I n d i a n C h a m b e r s o f C o m m e r c e a n d I n d u s t r y 25 Support to Businesses

Post-Lockout

Industry especially MSMEs having suffered losses due to the lockdown would require support and handholding for some time to get back to its feet. Some of the suggestions in this regard are as follows:

• Keep import duties for products (other than essential and which are raw material to a finished product) on higher side for a period of 6 months which will give protection and boost to domestic industry.

• We may have a problem of uncontrolled dumping from China – government needs to come out with suitable policy response such as strict anti-dumping measures like anti-dumping duties for certain products

• All pending payments from Govt buyers, both Central and State Govts, to be immediately cleared and paid to companies so that working capital locked under receivables would be released and this can be used for funding operations.

• Extend 3% interest subvention for working capital as well as term loans for MSMEs

• Rebate on electricity bills/deferment of electricity bill payment

• Tax deferment, including GST without any penalties

Ministry of Finance N/A

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• Loan moratorium to be extend to 6 months, be back ended. International payments also to be put under moratorium. Execution by banks in letter and sprit

• NPA forbearance

• Effort to step up local manufacturing of items so far dependent on China Statutory payments.

• Need to immediately address the issues of logistics, better distribution of transportation across all sectors - during the time of calibrated opening post lock down and thereafter.

26 Public Places • All the public gathering places should be under lockdown till 30^th April and post 30^th should open up in phased manner

• Weddings, conferences, sports events and other such gatherings should be banned till May 2^nd

• Malls, Cinema halls, Restaurants should continue to be closed.

• Restaurants shall be allowed to continue with their home delivery services

State police, Local Administration

27 Red Signal for reintroducing lockdown

Proactive wide scale testing and surveillance will guide the country to reintroduce lockdown at any time if the numbers begin to increase too fast. This has to be a calculated, data driven decision rather than a gamble.

At what point can data predict the “tipping point”:

epidemiologists should keep a close watch and guide the Govt.

Ministry of Health, State Health department, Local Administration

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• Calculate how many patients the healthcare system can take on in each state. Watch the numbers. What is the trend of mortality rate?

• Is there a decline in the new cases? Are there enough quarantine facilities?

• We should be prepared for multiple peaks and we should be prepared for more cases and morbidity later in the year.

• After lifting lockdown, norms for people who are needing medical help other than corona may be relaxed.

Remove Lockdown

• Cordon of hotspots

• Allow all sectors all services to operate

• Allow transportation of goods to Non COVID areas freely

• All must use Aarogya Setu App. If travel to COVID active areas.

• Re-entry only after testing

• Continue practicing Social Distancing

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Partially Remove Lockdown

• Cordon off areas where existing cases located.

• Extend local lock down of these areas for 7 days (if required)

• Practice social distancing

• Rapid Testing

• All must use Aarogya Setu App. If travel to COVID active areas.

• In these areas allow only essential services and export sectors, continuous process, with testing of workforce

Extend Lockdown

• Extend Lock Down for first 7 days and additional if required

• All should use Aarogya Setu app

• Rapid testing of all

• Isolation of those testing positive

• Quarantine those in proximity for 14 days

• Only health related and essential services including agriculture or those units or sites where they have own worker housing and it is COVID free with no migration of labour.