An economic analysis of the fisheries sector in Pakistan (1950-2013)
1Syed Babar Hussain Shah, 1Yongtong Mu*, 1Muhammad Mohsin, 2Tushar R. Pavase, 1MuhammadTalibKalhoro,
1AamirMahmoodMemon, 3Zaffarullah Jattak, 1Soomro Shamsher Hydar, & 4Maqsood Ahmed Soomro
1College of Fisheries, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266003, China
2 College of Food Science and Engineering, Seafood Safety Lab, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266003, China
3Sindh Fisheries Department, Hyderabad, 71000, Sindh, Pakistan
4College of Marine Atmosphere, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266003, China
5Livestock & Fisheries Department Government of Sindh, Pakistan
*[E-mail: ytmu@ouc.edu.cn]
Received 28 March 2016; revised 12 April 2016
Present study infers that despite year after year increase in the fish production and export, tremendously low progress of production growth rate was noticed compare to other developing countries. The study also shows that the inland aquaculture production increasing rapidly beyond marine aquaculture. On the contrary, there is no existence of mariculture practices yet to support marine production and export along the coast of Pakistan, indicating enormous importance for future opportunities and national economic growth.
[Keywords: Fisheries, Mariculture, Production, Export, Economic analysis, Pakistan]
Introduction
Pakistan, having, 1,120 km of coastline, 50,270 square km of continental shelf and 350 nm (2,900,00 km2) of exclusive economic zone (EEZ), is blessed with plenty of fishery resources and the inland water reserves are 3,102,408 ha, respectively1. Pakistan’s commercially important marine fish fauna consists of about 250 demersal fish, 15 species of shrimp, 50 small, 15 medium and 20 large pelagic fish, about 12 squid/octopus/cuttlefish and 5 lobsters species. In addition, the freshwater fauna comprises of more than 200 fish species and 35 shellfish species including crabs and prawns, representing around 20 commercially important fish species2. Pakistan is the first country in north Indian Ocean region, whose case for extension of continental shelf has been recently approved by UN3.
In Pakistan, export of seafood was increased by 16,991 tons (49.82 million USD) by making 16% of the production, in 2014, hitting historic high seafood export4. The share of Pakistani seafood over 50 countries in European import market, is 30-35%5. In Pakistan, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth has remarkably seen increasing with 4.24% in 2015 mainly through four sub-sectors viz. crops, livestock, fisheries and forestry, with total 20.9% of contribution in GDP, falls into agriculture. The GDP growth
through this sector recorded in Pakistan was 2.9 and 2.7 in 2014 and 2015, respectively6. Fisheries industries in Pakistan provide employment to around 400,000 people directly and 600,000 people are indirectly working in this sector7. Despite enormous growth in fisheries sector, still there is adequate and appropriate need of improvement to be considered, as there will be growing pressure for a strict application due to overexploitation of marine resources. Pakistan fisheries sector lacks in proper planning and management, which is a prerequisite to overcome the issue especially for aquaculture development2.
Aquaculture sector in Pakistan has immense potential for development of fisheries sector and in fact it is increasing gradually. In 2008, aquaculture production was 10-15000 metric tons which significantly increased to 250000 metric tons in 2010.
At present, the government is proving a bit more attention towards this sector by investing substantial amount8; nevertheless there is enough work to be done for the development of aquaculture sector.
Previously, many researchers have described Pakistani fisheries sector thoroughly in various ways9-
14. However, available literature focused on biology, biodiversity, toxicology etc. and is devoid of economic importance of this sector to the nation. In this pivotal study an attempt has been made to bridge
gathering information related to total fisheries production, aquaculture production and capture fisheries production data in the period 1950-2013.
Export and import of fishery products in the period 1980-2011 in Pakistan, was obtained from Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) global fisheries reports, by online data processing. Data procurement was also done by using FishStatJ – FAO Global Fishery and Aquaculture Statistics Software, USA.
Total fisheries, aquaculture and capture production data for Pakistan (1950 to 2013) was divided into two major groups corresponding with calculation of time and production quantity. Comparison before 1983 from (1950 to 1982) and from 1983 (1983 to 2013) was computed for the analyses of average growth rate and production quantity. The results obtained were constituted graphically by using Microsoft Excel 2007 and Graphpad Prism 6.01 commercial scientific software. In addition, similar software was also utilized to calculate percentages and annual growth rates. Annual growth rates were calculated as:
Where, GR represents = growth rate, Pre V = present year value and Pas V = past year value.
Results
The total fisheries production in Pakistan reported during the period 1950-2013 (Fig. 1 A) was totaled as 21758.904 X 103 Metric Tons (MT), with an average rate of production 339.98 X 103 MT year-1 (per-year).
The highest production 677.606 X 103 MT was obtained in the year 1999. On the contrary, the lowest production was observed in the period 1950-1963, where the total fisheries production was recorded in the consecutive fourteen years (1950-1963) 899.113 X 103 MT with an average production rate of 64.222 X 103 MT year-1 respectively. Initially, the Production step-up in the period 1964-1975, the total production for consecutive (1964-1975) 12 years 2047.122 X 103 MT with an average of 170.5935 X 103 MT year-1 was gained in each year that was
calculated as 18.7 X 103MT year-1. Remarkably, the contribution of fisheries production began to increase in the successive 20 years was observed in the period 1984-2003, where total calculated production was 10618.323 X103 MT year-1 with an average of 530.91 X 103 MT year-1 to observed production average of 64.222 X 103 in 1950-1963.
Noteworthy, the production growth increased in the last decade (2004-2013), in which the total production was 5848.277 X103 MT year-1 with an average rate of 584.8277 X 103 MT year-1 as compared to 530.91 X 103 during the period 1984-2003. In addition, the average production contributed in the last decade’s production (2004-2013) was 55.69 X 103 MT year-1 which was found to be significantly increased each year before the period from 1984-2003.
Noteworthy, the production growth increased in the last decade (2004-2013), in which the total production was 5848.277 X103 MT year-1 with an average rate of 584.8277 X 103 MT year1 as compared to 530.91 X 103 during the period 1984-2003. In addition, the average production contributed in the last decade’s production (2004-2013) was 55.69 X 103 MT year-1 which was found to be significantly increased each year before the period from 1984-2003.
Furthermore, the total fisheries growth rate % calculated was 6.14/ year-1, and the highest and the lowest growth rates recoded in the year 1953 and 1974 was 109 % -19.6 %, respectively. The average growth rate of fisheries production in the initial period 1950-1983 was 9.7% and in the period 1984-2013 it was 2.2% year-1. On other hand, for the last decade the estimated growth rate during 2004 -2013 was 1.2 % (Fig. 1 B).
During the period 1950-2013 the highest growth rate 109.6273 X 103 MT year-1 was observed in the year 1953, whereas the lowest growth rate -19.6375 X 103 MT year-1 was recorded in the year 1974. Overall, the average fisheries production growth rate recorded
Fig. 1 — (A) Total Fisheries Production of Pakistan.
was 6.240 X 103 MT year-1 (Fig. 1 B). The graph indicates the rise and fall of growth rate values in the period 1950-1982, with an average growth rate of 9.9588 X 103 MT year-1. On the other hand, in the period 1983-2013 average growth was found to be 2.2006 X 103 MT year-1, which significantly indicates the decrement of -7.7582 X 103 MT year-1 than in the period 1950-1983 (Fig. 1 B).
After 1950, a miserable production 42.4 X 103 MT year-1 was recorded during 1951 and in contrast with that 654.53 X 103 MT year-1, almost counted as 15 times production recorded in the year 1999, considered as the peak capture fisheries production during the year (Fig. 2 A). During the period 1990- 2000, there was a twice rise and fall of the production quantity. During this decade (1990-2000), the two peak points of production growth are clearly shown in the graph, with average production rate of 561.496 X 103 MT year-1 (Fig. 2 A). In the first part of the graph a very low average rate of 141.891 X 103 MT year-1 from 1950 to 1982 can be noticed, while in the second part of the graph the average rate calculated was 438.465 X 103 MT year-1 in the period 1983-2013.
Year-1 average production during 1950-2013 was computed as 312.6784 X 103 MT(Fig. 2 A).
Fig. 2 B represents the percentage of capture production percentage contributed in the total fisheries production. In the year 1953, the capture fisheries contributed around 98.9% in the total fisheries production, whereas the lowest contribution of production percentage from capture fisheries recorded was 76.1% in the year 2011, respectively.
The percentage of capture fisheries shown in the graph is more close to the trend line during the period 1950-2001, revealing the percentage of contribution is almost similar. After the year 2001, the contribution of capture production percentage descended. The average contribution of capture production was
calculated as 98.45% year-1 in the period 1950-1982 and 90.9% year-1 in 1983-2013. The average percentage of capture production contributed in the total period 1950-2013 estimated was 94.7% year-1.
Fig. 2 C represents the rate of capture production.
In 1953 the high growth rate of capture production
Fig. 1 — (B) Total Fisheries Production Growth Rate.
Fig. 2 — (A) Time Series Data of Total Fish Capture Production of Pakistan.
Fig. 2 — (B) (%) of Capture in Total Fish Production.
Fig. 2 — (C) Fish Capture Production Growth Rate.
development of this sector. (Fig. 3 A) represents the contribution of total aquaculture production in the period 1950-2013, insignificantly the aquaculture production contributed in the initial period was very low.
The highest contribution of aquaculture production recorded was 148.12 X 103 MT in the year 2013, where the total aquaculture production in the consecutive 41 years (1950-1990) collapsed and contributed only 144.208 X 103. The lowest recorded aquaculture production average year-1 in the period 1950-1990 was 3.517 X 103 MT year-1. Furthermore, there was a significant growth in the average year-1 aquaculture production recorded with 69.707 X 103 MT year-1 observed in the period 1991-2013.
(Fig. 3 B) refers to the contribution of aquaculture production percentage in the total fisheries production in Pakistan.
The highest aquaculture production contributed recorded 23.8% was in 2007, whereas only 1% with the lowest contribution of aquaculture recorded in the period of 1953 and 1954. For the consecutive 33 years (1950-1982) and 32 years (1983-2013) the average year1 contribution estimated was 1.55% and 9.3 %, respectively. The overall year-1 average of aquaculture production contributed in the total fisheries production estimated was 5.3%. In the last decade (2004-2013) almost 10 years of period the aquaculture averagely contributed 21.3% of production each year in the total fisheries production.
(Fig. 3 C) shows the aquaculture production growth rate. In the period 1985-87, almost 0 growth rate of aquaculture production was recorded. Initially, the aquaculture production average growth rate showed very low 7.694 X 103 MT in the period 1950-1982. In addition, the average growth rate 18.7347 X 103 MT was estimated in the period 1983-2013. The average growth rate for the whole period 1950-2013 calculated as 13.1269 X 103 MT year-1.
The exporting fisheries products are also a major source of earnings in Pakistan. (Fig. 4 A) disclose the export quantity of fisheries productions. The lowest
and highest export of fisheries production 5.019 X 103 MT year1 and 113.235 X 103 MT year-1 was recorded in the year 1981 and 2006 respectively.
(Fig. 4 B) Graph elaborates the outline of annual export growth rate. In the year 1984, the highest growth rate of fisheries production exported estimated was 92.2828 X 103 MT year-1, whereas 29.8513 X 103 MT year-1 was the lowest in the year of 1994.
Fig. 3— (A) Time Series Data of Total Aquaculture Production of Pakistan.
Fig. 3 — (B) (%) of Aquaculture in Total Fish Production.
Fig. 3 — (C) Aquaculture Production Growth Rate.
The year-1 average export growth rate calculated in the period 1980-1995 and 1996-2011 was 18.6048 X 103 MT year-1 and 7.9366 X 103 MT year-1 respectively. In addition the estimated per year average growth rate of export fisheries production in the period 1980-2011 was 13.0986 X 103 MT year-1.
(Fig. 4 C) represents the export percentage from the total fisheries production. The highest and the lowest fisheries production exported estimated was 19.07% and 1.39% respectively, as show in the graph 4 C. Percent year-1 average export percentage year-1 of fisheries production for the consecutive 16 years in the period 1980-1995 and 1996-2011 calculated as 5.36% and 13.70% respectively. In addition, the total year-1 average export estimated was 9.53% in the period of 1980-2011.
Whereas (Fig. 4 D), shows the export earnings through fisheries production in the period 1980-2011.
The maximum earning recoded during 2011 was approximately 116.4844 (000) USD and the minimum record was 6705 (000) USD in the year 1980. The year-1 average of export earnings through fisheries
production in the period 1980-1995 and 1996-2011 estimated was 3073.375 (000) USD and 103702 (000) USD, respectively. The annual average of export earnings during the period 1980-2011 was calculated as 67218.6875 (000) USD.
(Fig. 5 A) represents the import of fish and fishery products in Pakistan. Initially import of fish and fishery products in Pakistan was very low.
The total import trade estimated in the Pakistan was 13.153 X 103 MT in the period 1980-2011, with an import average estimation of 0.4110 X 103 MT year-1. The lowest import recorded was in the period 1980-1989, where import average calculated was 0.0135 X 103 MT year-1. Remarkably in the year 2007, the highest recorded import was 2.206 X 103 MT, as shown in the figure 5 A.
(Fig. 5 B) represents total expenditure on the import of fish and fishery products. Pakistan spend a total of 17691 (000) USD for the import of fish and fishery products in the period 1980-2011, with an average estimation of 552.843 (000) USD year-1.
The highest expenditure recorded was 4313 (000) USD during the period of 2011 and the lowest
Fig. 4 — (A) Time Series Data of Total Export of Fish and Fishery Products of Pakistan.
Fig. 4 — (B) Fish Export Growth Rate.
Fig. 4 — (C) (%) of Fish Export from Total Fish Production (Pakistan).
Fig. 4 — (D) Export Value of Fishery Products (Pakistan).
calculated was 49.9 (000) USD in the initial period of 1980-1989.
Discussion
Fish confer health benefits for the humans, as it contains various essential nutrients15. In correspond to these health advantages the demand of fish is rapidly increasing all over the globe. It is a clear scenario that, capture fisheries does not fulfill the fish demand exclusively, rather aquaculture plays a vital role in providing food in particularly developing countries. It has been reported that as a result of efforts in the aquaculture sector, fish yield has been increased16. It is estimated that the capture fisheries from Pakistani marine waters yielded almost same amount as of the aquaculture production, which is about 90 million tons year-1, in recent years. In contrast to capture fisheries, aquaculture sector is vigorously growing, about 6.5 percent year-1, with the passage of time. It is very interesting to mention that growth rate in
aquaculture sector is outstanding and out of figure compared to growth rates of all the other food sectors17-18-15.
Fisheries directly or indirectly support around half a billion people globally and among them 95% belong to the developing countries. Aquaculture has become the back bone of fisheries sector. It offers quantitative and qualitative strong development evidence through market-driven growth and boosts the circulation of cash in rural areas. Aquaculture and related processing industries offers new economic opportunities especially for women's employment. Some major fish producing countries share about 10 percent of GDP from fisheries (fishery and Aquaculture) sector. Fish trade is worth around USD 100 billion a year, higher- cost fish species to developed countries from developing countries and import lower-cost fish by developing countries makes a positive trade balance19. World’s fish production is continuously increasing due to aquaculture17. For example, in 2012, China produced, 16,167,443 and 41,108,304 tons by capture and aquaculture respectively showing that aquaculture has produced 24,940,861 tons more than the capture fishery17. Whereas, aquaculture production from Vietnam, Indonesia and Bangladesh were 4, 63,300, 4, 45,460 and 1, 90,291 tons in that order was more than capture fishery17 (Table 1). Other top fish producing developing countries like India, Norway, Thailand, Chile, Myanmar, Philippines etc. have been engaged in regular efforts to bring additional development in their aquaculture sector17.
Conclusion
This study has revealed that after 1997 aquaculture sector in Pakistan is growing with an average 89.49529 X 103 MT, year-1. The growth rate of aquaculture is increasing in Pakistan day by day due
Fig. 5 — (A) Time Series Data of Total Import of Fish and Fishery Products of Pakistan.
Fig. 5 — (B) Time Series Data of Total Import Expenditure of Fish and Fishery Products of Pakistan.
8 Chile 2 661 981 1 071 421
9 Myanmar 3 579 240 885 169
10 Philippines 2 322 896 790 894
to the interest of economic values of commercial fish species; however compared to other leading countries in aquaculture, this rate is very low. To improve fish yield in Pakistan need strengthen of related institutions for practices and take rapid actions. Thus, in this way aquaculture can be used as economic booster. Mariculture is being priority for growing in small scales at local and government levels currently in Pakistan. By promoting mariculture not only it can ensure more fish production but also can utilize large stockpile of marine and costal area properly. Marine environmental conditions may not suite to various aquatic species like salmon, which necessarily need - 3ºC cold, clear and clean water condition in Pakistan.
But, there are also many famous aqua-verities, commercial species, like cobia, sea bass, milkfish, finfish, pearl spot grey mullets which can be cultured in Pakistani water bodies. Moreover, commercially rewarded species of Crustacean, Mollusks and Seaweeds are possible to cultivate.
Acknowledgement
This work was supported by China Schaolsrhip Council (CSC), I would like to thank China Scholarship Council (CSC) and “China Agriculture Research System”/modern Agro-Industry Technology Research System (Project No. CARS-49) for funding this project and special research fund of Ocean University of China.
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