Energy Transition Pathways for the 2030 Agenda
SDG 7 Roadmap for Tonga
The Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) serves as the United Nations’
regional hub, promoting cooperation among countries to achieve inclusive and sustainable devel- opment. The largest regional intergovernmental platform with 53 member States and 9 associate members, ESCAP has emerged as a strong regional think-tank offering countries sound analytical products that shed insight into the evolving economic, social and environmental dynamics of the region. The Commission’s strategic focus is to deliver on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Develop- ment, which it does by reinforcing and deepening regional cooperation and integration to advance connectivity, financial cooperation and market integration. The research and analysis undertaken by ESCAP, coupled with its policy advisory services, capacity building and technical assistance to governments aims to support countries’ sustainable and inclusive development ambitions.
*The designations employed and the presentation of material on this map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
Energy Transition Pathways for the 2030 Agenda
SDG7 Roadmap for Tonga
Developed using National Expert SDG7 Tool for Energy Planning (NEXSTEP) December 2020
The shaded areas of the map indicate ESCAP members and associate members.*
The Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) serves as the United Nations’
regional hub, promoting cooperation among countries to achieve inclusive and sustainable devel- opment. The largest regional intergovernmental platform with 53 member States and 9 associate members, ESCAP has emerged as a strong regional think-tank offering countries sound analytical products that shed insight into the evolving economic, social and environmental dynamics of the region. The Commission’s strategic focus is to deliver on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Develop- ment, which it does by reinforcing and deepening regional cooperation and integration to advance connectivity, financial cooperation and market integration. The research and analysis undertaken by ESCAP, coupled with its policy advisory services, capacity building and technical assistance to governments aims to support countries’ sustainable and inclusive development ambitions.
*The designations employed and the presentation of material on this map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
SDG7 Roadmap for Tonga
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i
Foreword
Foreword:
ESCAP
The Kingdom of Tonga has been working to develop its energy sector in line with the targets set out in SDG7. As an island nation, energy is a critical input to the wellbeing and economy of the country, underpinning its trade, transport and services.
Tonga’s Sustainable Development Goal 7 Road Map highlights that good progress has been made on many of the targets of SDG7. It underscores that continued progress will be assisted by an integrated policy framework. The Road Map is intended to play this role in helping Tonga achieve its SDG and NDC targets by providing a matrix of technological options and enabling policy measures. Its scenarios have been developed using national data and take into account existing energy policies and strategies, together with the NDC. It offers recommended technology solutions
and policy options for reducing emissions, saving energy, lowering costs and improving access for all.
It is hoped that the analysis in the Road Map will help the Government of Tonga to make an informed decision to develop and implement a set of policies to achieve SDG 7 by 2030 and deliver on its NDC.
Tonga is among the first countries in the region to develop an SDG7 road map. This experience will help other countries in the region looking to understand how they can realize increased ambition on sustainable energy.
ESCAP is committed to continue to support Tonga and all its member States in delivering a secure, resilient and sustainable energy future as it builds back better from COVID-19.
Hongpeng Liu
Director, Energy Division, ESCAP
It is my pleasure to provide the foreword for this, the first Report on the Tonga Energy Roadmap 2010- 2020. This Roadmap for achieving Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7) presents a detailed assessment aimed at helping the country to reach a clean and green energy future and in particular achieve its national energy targets under NDC and TERM Plus. It details a range of technical opportunities and policy options for reducing emissions, saving energy and lowering costs.
The Roadmap offers an opportunity to leverage a least-cost sustainable energy development pathway, and to direct the investment savings to other critical sectors. The National Expert SDG Tool for Energy Planning (NEXSTEP) will enable policymakers to make informed policy decisions to support the achievement of the SDG7 targets as well as emission reduction targets (NDCs).
From the Government of Tonga’s perspective, the development of the Roadmap has required unprecedented access to government ministries and one of the state-owned enterprises (Tonga Power Limited) by the country’s development partners to enable them to clearly identify the underlying problems and, therefore, identify
Foreword:
Tonga
Mr. Paula Ma’u
CEO for Ministry of MEIDECC January, 2021
optimum and targeted solutions. This has not always been an easy process, as it has stretched the resources and capacity of some of the government entities. Hard questions have also had to be asked in relation to the adequacy of government processes in areas of governance, effectiveness, transparency and accountability.
Energy is a fundamental building block for the Kingdom in its social and economic development, and in enhancing the livelihood and wellbeing of all Tongans. It affects all businesses and every household. Accessible, affordable and sustainable electricity that is environmentally responsible and commercially viable is a high priority. My Government recognizes the importance of having dependable, accessible and reasonably-priced power as a key catalyst for sustainable economic growth. Achievement of these goals is crucial to achieving the Government’s primary target of
“poverty alleviation”, including100% accessibility to electricity.
I commend this Roadmap and the information it contains and hope that its impacts will benefit all.
‘Ofa atu
iii
Acknowledgements
The preparation of this report was conducted by the Energy Division of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) in collaboration with Murdoch University, Australia and the Department of Energy of Tonga under the Ministry of Meteorology, Energy Information, Disaster Management, Environment, Climate Change and Communications (MEIDECC).
The principal authors and contributors of the report were Anis Zaman, Saif Saahil and Charlotte Yong.
A significant contribution to the overall work was from Tevita Tukunga, Director of the Department of Energy, Tonga; ‘Eliate Laulaupea’alu, Sione Tausinga and Samiuela Matakaiongo.
The review and valuable suggestions were provided by Hongpeng Liu, Director of the Energy Division, ESCAP, Michael Williamson, Section Chief of the Energy Division, ESCAP and David Ferrari, Economic Affairs Officer, Energy Division, ESCAP.
Robert Oliver edited the manuscript. The cover and design layout were created by Xiao Dong.
Administrative and secretariat support was provided by Prachakporn Sophon, Sarinna Sunkphayung, Nawaporn Sunkpho and Thiraya Tangkawattana.
Acknowledgements
Abbreviations and acronyms
BAU business-as-usual
BESS battery energy storage system CBA cost benefit analysis
CFL compact fluorescent light CNO coconut oil
CO2 carbon dioxide
CPS current policy scenario
CTCN Climate Technology Centre and Network
EC European Commission EE energy efficiency
ESCAP United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific EV electric vehicle
GDP gross domestic product GEF Global Environment Facility GHG greenhouse gas
ICS improved cooking stove
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency
IRR Internal Rate of Return
JNAP2 Joint National Action Plan on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management
ktCO2-e thousand tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent
kTOE thousand tonnes of oil equivalent kWh kilowatt-hour
LCOE Levelized Cost of Electricity LEAP Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning
LED light-emitting diode LPG liquified petroleum gas
MCDA Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis MEIDECC Ministry of Meteorology, Energy
Information, Disaster management, Environment, Climate Change and Communications
MEPS minimum energy performance standard
MJ megajoule
MTF Multi-Tier Framework MW megawatt MWh megawatt-hour
NDC nationally determined contributions NEXSTEP National Expert SDG Tool for Energy
Planning
NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory
OIREP Outer Island Renewable Energy Project
PCREEE Pacific Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency
PIREP Pacific Islands Renewable Energy Project
PP power plant PV photovoltaic RE renewable energy
SDG Sustainable Development Goal SIDS Small Island Developing States SPC Pacific Community
TERM Tonga Energy Roadmap TFEC total final energy consumption TPL Tonga Power Limited
TPES total primary energy supply TSDFII Tonga Strategic Development
Framework 2015-2025 WHO World Health Organization
v
Executive summary
Transitioning the energy sector to achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the objectives of the Paris Agreement presents a complex and difficult task for policymakers. It needs to ensure sustained economic growth as well as respond to increasing energy demand, reduce emissions and, more importantly, consider and capitalize on the interlinkages between Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7) and other SDGs. In this connection, ESCAP has developed the National Expert SDG Tool for Energy Planning (NEXSTEP). This tool enables policymakers to make informed policy decisions to support the achievement of the SDG 7 targets as well as emission reduction targets – nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The initiative has been undertaken in response to the Ministerial Declaration of the Second Asian and Pacific Energy Forum (April 2018, Bangkok) and Commission Resolution 74/9, which endorsed its outcome. NEXSTEP also garnered the support of the Committee on Energy in its Second Session, with recommendations to expand the number of countries being supported by this tool.
The key objective of this SDG 7 Roadmap is to assist the Government of Tonga to develop enabling policy measures for achieving the SDG 7 targets. It contains a matrix of technological options and enabling policy measures for the Government to consider. It presents several scenarios that have been developed using national data, and which consider existing energy policies and strategies as well as reflect on other development plans. These scenarios are expected to enable the Government of Tonga to make an informed decision to develop and implement a set of policies to achieve SDG 7 by 2030, together with the NDC.
A. Highlights of the Roadmap
Tonga has been making good progress towards achieving the SDG 7 targets, but more needs to be done to achieve all SDG 7 targets by 2030 through a concerted effort and the establishment of an enabling policy framework. Tonga is on track to achieve the universal access to electricity by 2021, which contributes to bringing the Government a step closer to alleviating poverty.
Currently, close to 35 per cent of the Tonga’s population still relies on unclean cooking technologies and fuels. A remarkable progress in clean cooking access is projected under no policy interventions, yet more governmental commitment and targeted measures are required to bring the access rate to a 100 per cent. The energy efficiency target, in accordance with an annual improvement rate of 0.07 per cent, can be readily achieved under the current policy settings through the gradual transition from low efficient to more efficient cooking technologies as well as the projected ramp-up in renewable energy generation.
Nevertheless, Tonga may not achieve its NDC target without increasing its planned renewable power capacity.
There are ample of opportunities for Tonga to raise its ambitions beyond achieving the SDG and NDC targets, while offering multiple benefits. Energy savings in the residential and commercial sectors through phasing-out of inefficient appliances allows reduction of electricity demand which, in turn, reduces the need for power sector investment. Sustainable transport strategies – such as encouraging the electrification of vehicle fleets – will not only reduce GHG emissions but also enhance Tonga’s energy security by reducing the reliance on imported fuels. Diversification of fuel for power generation that focuses on exploiting the full potential of indigenous sources should also be Tonga’s key priority.
The levelized cost of electricity from renewable power technologies has experienced a steep decline, becoming economically more competitive than the conventional fossil-fuel-based technologies. A low carbon power sector is not only economically feasible, it may also be the optimal way forward considering its imperativeness in climate change mitigation and energy security enhancement.
Executive summary
B. Achieving Tonga’s SDG 7 and NDC targets by 2030
Universal access to electricity
Tonga is on-track to achieve universal access to electricity by 2021. Achieving universal access to electricity is a priority for the Government of Tonga, The Tonga Energy Roadmap (TERM) states that Tonga should achieve 100 per cent access to electricity by 2020 (Government of Tonga, 2010).
Achievement of this target is crucial to meet the Government’s primary target of “poverty alleviation”.
Based on geographic location of the households that have yet to be connected, NEXSTEP suggests that off-grid PV mini-grid technology would be more cost-effective and would enable faster implementation.
Universal access to clean cooking
Tonga does not have a specific policy for achieving universal access to clean cooking. NEXSTEP analysis shows that the current rate of improvement is not enough to achieve universal access to clean cooking (figure ES 1). In the current policy settings, access to clean cooking will increase from 65.3 per cent in 2018 to 92.2 per cent in 2030, which leaves about 8,000 people (1,787 households) relying on inefficient and hazardous cooking fuels and technologies. Tonga needs to increase its efforts to achieve universal access to clean cooking fuels. NEXSTEP analysis indicates that LPG cooking stoves is the recommended option, based on affordability, high efficiency and reduced indoor air pollution for the remaining 8,000 people by 2030.
Figure ES 1. Tonga access to clean cooking
8000 12000 16000 20000 24000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
NO. OF HOUSEHOLDS
CPS SDG
92.2%
21,123 Households 22,910 Households100%
Renewable energy
The share of renewable energy in total final energy consumption (TFEC) was 25.2 per cent (including traditional biomass) in 2018. Based on current policies, the share of renewable energy will decrease to 15.2 per cent by 2030, mainly due to the substitution of traditional biomass cooking stoves by LPG cooking stoves. In the SDG scenario the share of renewable energy in TFEC will be 17.7 per cent by 2030.
The increase will require a high penetration of renewable energy in the power sector, with a renewable energy capacity addition of 26 MW of solar PP and 8 MW of wind PP by 2030, compared with current plans of 18 MW of solar PP and 6 MW of wind PP in the Tonga Power Limited Business Plan. Looking further, diesel-fired power plants beyond 2020 are seen to be an uneconomic option as the lifecycle cost of renewable-based power generation is substantially cheaper than the fossil fuel counterpart.
vii
Executive summary
Energy efficiency
The current trend of energy intensity reduction indicates that Tonga will achieve its energy efficiency target by 2030. The SDG rate requires annual improvement of 0.07 per cent of primary energy intensity (figure ES 2) to achieve the SDG 7 target of 2.94 MJ/$ by 2030, a slight drop from 2.97 MJ/$ in 2018.
Figure ES 2. Tonga energy efficiency target
-0.04%
-1.76%
-1.41%
-0.07%
-2.00%
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
Base Period Rate 1990-
2010 2011-2014 2015 SDG Rate 2018-2030
COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (CAGR)
There are ample opportunities for Tonga to achieve this target as well as even implement a higher rate of improvement. These include, for example, introducing minimum energy efficiency standard (MEPS), rapidly deploying electric vehicles and improving energy efficiency in new commercial buildings. These opportunities are discussed in later sections of this report.
Nationally determined contributions
Tonga makes negligible contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions and is not obliged to have any emission target as per the NDC document. Tonga’s intended national contribution targets cascaded at the energy sector level are (Kingdom of Tonga, 2015):
• Fifty per cent renewable energy in electric power generation by 2020 will be achieved in the 2020-2021 fiscal year, based on current policies. The share of renewable energy in electric power generation is projected to be 24 per cent in 2020, increasing to 55 per cent in 2021, as per the TPL plan. The target will be achieved a year late due to implementation delays caused by COVID-19.
• The second target of 70 per cent renewable energy in electric power generation by 2030 may not be achieved, based on current policies, and additional investment is required. The share of renewable energy in power generation, as per the TPL plan, will range between 52 per cent and 55 per cent during 2021-2030.
• Improved energy efficiency through reduction of electricity line losses to 9 per cent by 2020 (from a baseline of 18 per cent in 2010).
Emissions in the current policy scenario will reach 120,000 tCO2-e (ktCO2-e) by 2030, about a 20 per cent drop from the baseline. Emissions in the SDG scenario will be 93 ktCO2-e in 2030 which is set to achieve the NDC targets for renewable energy the power sector (figure ES 3).
Figure ES 3. Comparison of emissions by scenario, 2018-2030
149 120 93
- 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
GHG EMISSIONS (KTCO2-E)
BAU CPS SDG
C. Important policy directions
The key policy recommendations to help Tonga achieve SDG 7 and NDC targets as well as enhance energy security and build back better from the COVID-19 pandemic, include:
• Improving energy efficiency beyond the SDG 7 target is economically feasible and will help to reduce fuel import dependency. Negative and low-cost measures, including efficient lighting, Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS), switching to electric transport and improving fuel economy standards, have a solid business case with a quick return on investment.
• Tonga has the potential to achieve its NDC target of renewable electric power generation by increasing its ambition. The SDG scenario recommends investments in solar and wind energy in line with the Tonga Power Limited Business Plan 2020-2025. However, the current plan of 52 per cent by 2030 can be increased to 70 per cent, in line with TERM 2010-2020, by using an integrated approach of energy efficiency, energy storage to increase the capacity factor and prioritizing renewables with zero additional investments.
• Diesel-fired power generation is no longer cost-effective compared with renewables, and new deployment of this technology should be avoided. Least-cost optimization analysis suggests that lifecycle costs of renewables are cheaper than diesel-fired technologies. The results from optimization indicate early investments in renewables will generate greater benefits compared to late interventions.
• Efforts to achieve universal access to clean cooking need to increase. LPG cooking stoves are the recommended technology option to achieve this target for Tonga. Implementation of this programme will cost the Government of Tonga US$ 100,000, considering a full subsidization on the upfront stove costs for the households, to achieve universal access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking by 2030.
ix
Contents
Foreword: ESCAP i
Foreword: Tonga ii
Acknowledgements iii
Abbreviations and acronyms iv
Executive summary v
A. Highlights of the Roadmap ... v
B. Achieving Tonga’s SDG 7 and NDC targets by 2030 ... vi
C. Important policy directions ... viii
1. Introduction 1
1.1 Background ...21.2 SDG 7 targets and indicators ...2
1.3 Nationally Determined Contribution ...2
2. NEXSTEP methodology 3
2.1. Key methodological steps ...42.2. Scenario definitions ...5
2.3. Economic analysis ...6
2.3.1. Basics of economic analysis... 6
2.3.2. Cost parameters ... 6
2.3.3. Scenario analysis ... 6
3. Overview of Tonga’s energy sector 7
3.1. Current situation ...83.2. National energy profile ...8
3.3. National energy policies and targets ...9
3.4. National energy resource assessment ...10
3.5. National energy balance ...10
3.6. Energy modelling projections ...10
3.7. Energy demand outlook ...11
3.7.1. Business as usual scenario ... 11
3.7.2. Current policy scenario ... 11
4. SDG scenario – achieving SDG 7 by 2030 13
4.1. SDG energy demand outlook ...144.2. SDG 7 targets ...14
4.2.1. SDG 7.1.1. Access to electricity ... 14
4.2.2. SDG 7.1.2. Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking ...14
4.2.3. Clean cooking technologies evaluated ... 14
4.2.4. SDG 7.2. Renewable energy ... 16 Contents
4.2.5. SDG 7.3. Energy efficiency ... 16
4.2.6. NDC unconditional target ... 17
4.4. Policy actions for achieving SDG 7 ...17
4.4.1. Achieving universal access to electricity and enhancing climate resilience using off-grid renewable energy systems ... 17
4.4.2. Decarbonizing power generation with 100 per cent renewable energy is a long-term solution for Tonga ... 18
5. Energy transition pathways with increased ambitions 19
5.1. Ambitious scenario 1: Enhanced energy efficiency ...205.1.1. Electricity demand and power capacity... 21
5.1.2. Import fuel dependency ... 21
5.2. Ambitious scenario 2: Transport electrification strategies ...22
5.2.1. Electricity demand and power capacity... 22
5.2.2. Import fuel dependency ... 24
5.3. Ambitious scenario 3: Decarbonization of Tonga’s power sector ...24
5.3.1. Power capacity and electricity output by fuel type ...24
6. Policy recommendations to raise ambitions 25
6.1. Scenario ranking ...266.2. Enhance energy savings measures for multi-fold benefits ...27
6.3. Renewable power generation is cost-effective ...27
6.4. Reducing petroleum product dependency via transport efficiency strategies and power sector decarbonization ...28
6.5. Green financing ...28
7. Tonga Energy Roadmap 2035 – Tonga’s energy future 29
7.1. Energy demand outlook ...307.2. Power sector outlook ...31
7.3. Emission trajectory ...32
8. Building-back-better in recovery from COVID-19 with the SDG 7 Roadmap 33
8.1. Accelerating access to clean and modern energy services ...348.2. Savings from the energy sector will help in building other sectors ...34
9. Revisiting existing policies 35
9.1. Universal access to electricity ...369.2. Universal access to clean cooking ...36
9.3. Renewable energy ...37
9.4. Energy efficiency ...38
10. Conclusion 39 References 41 Annexes 42
Annex I. National Expert SDG 7 Tool for Energy Planning Methodology ...42Annex II. Key assumptions for NEXSTEP energy modelling ...43
Annex III. Economic analysis data for power plant technologies ...44
xi
Contents
List of figures
Figure ES 1. Tonga access to clean cooking ... vi
Figure ES 2. Tonga energy efficiency target ... vii
Figure ES 3. Comparison of emissions by scenario, 2018-2030 ... viii
Figure 1. Different components of the NEXSTEP methodology ... 5
Figure 2. Tonga electricity generation after losses, 2018 ... 9
Figure 3. Total primary energy supply ... 11
Figure 4. Total final energy consumption ... 11
Figure 5. Tonga’s energy demand outlook, 2020-2030 ... 12
Figure 6. Projection of TFEC by sector, 2030, SDG scenario ... 15
Figure 7. Renewable energy in TFEC, 2030 ... 16
Figure 8. Energy efficiency savings in the SDG scenario ... 16
Figure 9. Emissions by scenario, 2030 ... 18
Figure 10. Renewable power generation, 2030 ... 18
Figure 11. Energy savings by measures, 2020-2030 ... 21
Figure 12. Energy savings via transport electrification measures ... 22
Figure 13. Renewable power capacity, 2018-2030: Decarbonization of Tonga’s power sector scenario ... 23
Figure 14. Electricity output by fuel type: Decarbonization of Tonga’s power sector scenario... 23
Figure 15. LCOE of different power plant technologies in Tonga ... 28
Figure 16. Energy demand by sector, 2020-2035, TERM 2035 scenario ... 31
Figure 17. Renewable power capacity installed, 2018-2030, TERM 2035 scenario ... 31
Figure 18. Electricity output share by power technologies, TERM 2035 scenario ... 32
Figure 19. Emission trajectories, 2018-2035 ... 32
List of tables
Table 1. Important factors, targets and assumptions used in modelling ... 12Table 2. Annualized cost of cooking technologies... 15
Table 3. Criteria with assigned weights for MCDA ... 26
Table 4. Scenario ranking based on MCDA... 27
Table 5. Targets and indicators for SDG 7 ... 42
Table 6. GDP and GDP growth rate ... 43
Table 7. Population, population growth rate and household size ... 43
Table 8. Productivity by industry type ... 43
Table 9. Transport ... 44
Table 10. Residential urbanization, percentage ... 44
Table 11. Commercial floor space ... 44
Table 12. Economic analysis parameters... 44
Table 13. Fuel price for power plant technologies ... 44
Table 14. Tonga technology capacity factor/efficiency and cost data ... 45
Table 15. Technology and cost data for clean cooking technologies ... 45
Annex IV. Economic analysis data for clean cooking technologies ...45
Annex V. Energy efficiency measures in the residential sector ...45
Annex VI Summary result for the scenarios ...46
1. Introduction
Introduction
1.
2
1. Introduction
1.1 Background
Transitioning the energy sector to achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the objectives of the Paris Agreement presents a complex and difficult task for policymakers. It needs to ensure a sustained economic growth, respond to increasing energy demand, reduce emissions and, more importantly, consider and capitalise on the interlinkages between SDG 7 and other SDGs. In this connection, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) has developed the National Expert SDG Tool for Energy Planning (NEXSTEP).
This tool enables policymakers to make informed policy decisions to support the achievement of the SDG 7 targets as well as emission reduction targets (NDCs). The initiative has been undertaken in response to the Ministerial Declaration of the Second Asian and Pacific Energy Forum (April 2018, Bangkok) and Commission Resolution 74/9 which endorsed its outcomes. NEXSTEP also garnered the support of the Committee on Energy in its Second Session, with recommendations to expand the number of countries being supported by this tool.
1.2 SDG 7 targets and indicators
SDG 7 aims to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all. It has three key targets, which are outlined below.
• Target 7.1: “By 2030, ensure universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services.” Two indicators are used to measure this target:
(a) the proportion of the population with
access to electricity; and (b) the proportion of the population with primary reliance on clean cooking fuels and technology.
• Target 7.2: “By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix”. This is measured by the renewable energy share in total final energy consumption (TFEC).
It is calculated by dividing the consumption of energy from all renewable sources by total energy consumption. Renewable
energy consumption includes consumption of energy derived from hydropower, solid biofuels (including traditional use), wind, solar, liquid biofuels, biogas, geothermal, marine and waste. Due to the inherent complexity of accurately estimating traditional use of biomass, NEXSTEP focuses entirely on modern renewables (excluding traditional use of biomass) for this target.
• Target 7.3: “By 2030, double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency”, as measured by the energy intensity of the economy. This is the ratio of the total primary energy supply (TPES) and GDP. Energy intensity is an indication of how much energy is used to produce one unit of economic output. As defined by the IEA, TPES is made up of production plus net imports, minus international marine and aviation bunkers, plus stock changes. For comparison purposes, GDP is measured in constant terms at 2011 PPP.
1.3 Nationally Determined Contribution
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) represent pledges by each country to reduce national emissions and are the steppingstones to the implementation of the Paris Agreement. Since the energy sector is the largest contributor to GHG emissions in most countries, decarbonizing energy systems should be given a high priority.
Key approaches to reducing emissions from the energy sector include increasing renewable energy in the generation mix and improving energy efficiency.
As a non-Annex I member country, Tonga is not obliged to encounter any greenhouse gas reduction or any constraining goals in terms of commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. In its NDC document Tonga intended national contributions cascaded at the energy sector level are:
• Fifty per cent of electricity generation from renewable energy sources by 2020.
• Seventy per cent of electricity generation from renewable energy sources by 2030.
• Improve energy efficiency through the reduction of electricity line losses to 9 per cent by 2020 (from a baseline of 18 per cent in 2010). This target has been achieved.
2. NEXSTEP methodology
NEXSTEP
methodology
2.
4
2. NEXSTEP methodology
The main purpose of NEXSTEP is to help design the type and mix of policies that would enable the achievement of the SDG 7 targets and the emission reduction targets (under NDCs) through policy analysis. However, policy analysis cannot be done without modelling energy systems to forecast/backcast energy and emissions, and economic analysis to assess which policies or options would be economically suitable. Based on this, a three-step approach has been proposed.
Each step is discussed in the following sections.
2.1. Key methodological steps
(a) Energy and emissions modelling
NEXSTEP begins with the energy systems modelling to develop different scenarios to achieve SDG 7 by identifying potential technical options for each scenario. Each scenario contains important information including the final energy (electricity and heat) requirement by 2030, possible generation/supply mix, emissions and the size of investment required. The energy and emissions modelling component use the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP). It is a widely used tool for energy sector modelling and to create energy and emissions scenarios.
Many countries have used LEAP to develop scenarios as a basis for their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs).
The Least Cost Optimisation method is used to calculate the optimal expansion and dispatch of the electric power system. Figure 1 shows different steps of the methodology.
(b) Economic analysis module
The energy and emissions modelling section selects the appropriate technologies, and the economic analysis builds on this by selecting the least cost energy supply mix for the country. The economic analysis is used to examine economic performances of individual technical options identified and prioritize least-cost options. As such, it is important to estimate some of the key economic parameters such as net present value, internal rate of return, and payback period. A ranking of
selected technologies will help policymakers to identify and select economically effective projects for better allocation of resources. The economic analysis helps to present several economic parameters and indicators that would be useful for policymakers in making an informed policy decision.
(c) Scenario and policy analysis
Using the Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) tool, this prioritised list of scenarios is assessed in terms of their techno-economic and environmental dimensions to convert to a policy measure. The top-ranked scenario from the MCDA process is essentially the output of NEXSTEP, which is then used to develop policy recommendations.
2.2. Scenario definitions
The LEAP modelling system is designed for scenario analysis, to enable energy specialists to model energy system evolution based on current energy policies. In the NEXSTEP model for Tonga, four main scenarios have been modelled – (a) a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario; (b) current policy scenario (CPS); (c) Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) scenario, and (d) ambitious scenario:
(a) The BAU scenario: This scenario follows historical demand trends, based on simple projections, by using GDP and population growth. It does not consider emission limits or renewable energy targets. For each sector, the final energy demand is met by a fuel mix
reflecting the current shares in TFEC, with the trend extrapolated to 2030. Essentially, this scenario aims to indicate what will happen if no enabling policies are implemented or the existing policies fail to achieve their intended outcomes;
(b) Current policies scenario: Inherited and modified from the BAU scenario, this scenario considers all policies and plans currently in place. These are, for example, the Tonga Energy Roadmap 2010-2020 and the Tonga Strategic Development Framework 2015-2025 (TSDFII);
(c) SDG 7 scenario: This scenario aims to achieve the SDG 7 targets, including universal access to electricity and clean cooking fuel, substantially increasing the renewable energy share and doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvement. For clean cooking, different technologies (electric cooking stove, LPG cooking stove and improved cooking stove) have been assessed, with the subsequent recommendation of the most appropriate technology. Energy intensity has been modelled to help achieve the SDG 7 target. Finally, the NDC target has been used to estimate the optimum share of renewable energy in TFEC;
(d) Ambitious SDG scenarios: Similar to the SDG scenario, these ambitious scenarios are aimed at achieving the SDG 7 targets. In addition, these scenarios also look to increase the socio-economic and environmental benefits Figure 1. Different components of the NEXSTEP methodology
Historical energy data
Macroeconomic data e.g. GDP growth rate Demographic data
User interface
Energy transition scenarios Using the output from modelling, energy transition scenarios to achieve the SDG7 targets (in agreement with the NDC target), will be identified.
STEP 1
Energy, emissions and investment
modelling
LEAP STEP 3
Scenario /Policy analysis
MCDA
STEP 2
Economic analysis of technical options
Economic performance of scenarios e.g. investments, CBA, etc.
OUTPUT Policy recommendations
Enabling policy measures for each
SDG7 target
Emission constraints and reduction targets
Renewable energy resources data
Performance indicators Macro and micro
economic parameters
Evaluation criteria Review of policies and best practices
This tool is unique in a way that no other tools look at developing policy measures to achieve SDG7. The key feature that makes it outstanding is the backcasting approach for energy and emissions modelling. This is important when it comes to planning for SDG7 as the targets for the final year (2030) is already given and thus the tool needs to be able to work its way backward to the current date and identify the best possible pathway.
6
2. NEXSTEP methodology
for the country from raising its ambition beyond just achieving the SDG 7 targets – such as creating cost-effectiveness by further improving its energy efficiency beyond SDG 7.3 target, or reducing GHG emissions beyond its NDC targets through decarbonising the power sector.
2.3. Economic analysis
This economic analysis considers the project’s contribution to the economic performance of the energy sector. The purpose of a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) is to make better informed policy decisions. It is a tool to weigh the benefits against costs, and to facilitate an efficient distribution of resources in public sector investment.
2.3.1. Basics of economic analysis
The economic analysis of public sector investment differs from a financial analysis. A financial analysis considers the profitability of an investment project from the investor’s perspective.
In an economic analysis the profitability of the investment considers national welfare, including externalities. A project is financially viable only if all the monetary costs can be recovered in the project’s lifetime. Project financial viability is not enough in an economic analysis; contribution to societal welfare should be identified and quantified. For example, in the case of a coal power plant, the emissions from the combustion process include particulate matter that is inhaled by the local population, causing health damage and accelerated climate change. In an economic analysis, a monetary value is assigned to the GHG emission to value its GHG emissions abatement.
2.3.2. Cost parameters
The project cost is the fundamental input to the economic analysis. The overall project cost is calculated using:
(a) Capital cost – capital infrastructure costs for technologies. These costs are based on country-specific data to improve the analysis.
They include land, building, machinery, equipment and civil works;
(b) Operation and maintenance cost – this consists of fuel, labour and maintenance costs. Power generation facilities classify operation and maintenance costs as fixed ($/
MW) and variable ($/MWh);
(c) Decommissioning cost – retirement of power plants costs related to environmental remediation, regulatory frameworks and demolition costs;
(d) Sunk cost – existing infrastructure investments are not included in the economic analysis, since no additional investment is required in the project;
(e) External cost – refers to any additional externalities that place costs on society;
(f) GHG abatement – avoided cost of CO2 generation is calculated in monetary value based on carbon price. The 2016 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories are followed in the calculation of GHG emissions for the economic analysis.
The sectoral analysis is based on the Tier 1 approach, which uses fuel combustion from national statistics and default emission factors.
2.3.3. Scenario analysis
The scenario analysis evaluates and ranks scenarios, using the MCDA tool, with a set of criteria and weights assigned to each criterion.
Ideally, the weights assigned to each criterion should be decided in a stakeholder consultation.
If deemed necessary, this step can be repeated using the NEXSTEP tool in consultation with stakeholders, where the participants may wish to change weights of each criterion, where the total weight needs to be 100 per cent. Although the criteria considered in the MCDA tool can include the following, stakeholders may wish to add/
remove criteria to suit the local context:
• Access to clean cooking fuel;
• Energy efficiency;
• Share of renewable energy;
• Emissions in 2030;
• Alignment with the Paris Agreement;
• Fossil fuel subsidy phase-out;
• Price on carbon;
• Fossil fuel phase-out;
• Cost of access to electricity;
• Cost of access to clean cooking fuel;
• Investment cost of the power sector;
• Net benefit from the power sector.
3. Overview of the Georgia’s energy sector
Overview of Tonga’s energy sector
3.
8
3. Overview of Tonga’s energy sector
3.1. Current situation
Country profile: The Kingdom of Tonga (Tonga) is a constitutional monarchy and a parliamentary democracy with a unicameral legislative assembly. Tonga is a Small Island Developing State (SID). It has integrated the implementation of 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, including the internationally-agreed blueprint for the sustainable development of small-island developing States and the SIDS Accelerated Modalities of Action Pathway (SAMOA Pathway) (United Nations General Assembly, 2014), in its national planning processes.
Geography: Tonga lies in the central south-west Pacific, between latitudes 15 to 23.5 south and longitudes 173 to 177 west. Tonga comprises an archipelago of 176 islands, covering a land area of 718 square kilometres and a sea area of 30 square kilometres (Kingdom of Tonga, 2019). The main island groups are Tongatapu, Ha’apai, Vava’u, ‘Eua and Niuas.
Population: The population of Tonga declined from 101,352 people in 2011 to 100,651 people in 2018. During 2011-2018, the population decline averaged 0.1 per cent annually, which can be partially explained by emigration (Kingdom of Tonga, 2019). The Tonga National Census 2016 (Tonga Statistics Department, 2017) recorded 18,198 households with an average of 5.53 persons per household.
Economy: Tonga’s gross domestic product (GDP) nominal was reported as US$ 514.1 million.1 The services sector accounts for 62.4 per cent of GDP, with the primary supply coming from agriculture, forestry and fishing (19.4 per cent) and the industrial sector (18.2 per cent). The economy is dependent on remittances which totalled 27.4 per cent of GDP in 2017 (ADB, 2019). According to the World Bank, Tonga is classified as an upper- middle income country, with a GDP per capita US$
1 Data from the Ministry of Meteorology, Energy, Information, Disaster Management, Environment, Climate Change and Communications.
4,364 (current US dollar) in 2018 (World Bank, 2020). During 2008-2018, Tonga experienced strong economic growth with an annual GDP per capita increase of 2.6 per cent.
Climate change risks: Tonga faces challenges similar to other Pacific island countries and is vulnerable to external shocks, high costs of climate change impacts and natural disasters, such as Cyclone Winston in February 2016 and Cyclone Gita in February 2018. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Tonga suffered the highest loss from natural disasters (as a percent of GDP) in 2018, equivalent of 38 per cent of annual GDP from the Tropical Cyclone Gita (IMF, 2020).
Energy: The country’s main energy policy is the Tonga Energy Roadmap 2010-2020 (TERM) – “A 10-year roadmap to reduce Tonga’s vulnerability to oil price shocks and achieve an increase in quality access to modern energy services in an environmentally sustainable manner” (GoT, 2010).
The TSDFII 2015-2025 and Climate Change Policy 2016 play a critical role for the energy sector.
3.2. National energy profile
Universal access to electricity in Tonga was reported as 96 per cent in 2018, based on data from Ministry of Meteorology, Energy Information, Disaster management, Environment, Climate Change and Communications (MEIDECC), leaving 4,026 people without electricity access. Tonga planned to achieve universal access to electricity by 2020, ensuring access to clean, secure, safe and sustainable grid and off-grid energy.
Universal access to clean cooking fuels is measured at 65.3 per cent, based on data from MEIDECC. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is the main fuel used for cooking in Tong, with a share of 63.8 per cent of total households using the fuel for cooking in 2018, an increase from 52.3 per cent in 2010. Despite the progress in universal access to clean and modern cooking systems, traditional
biomass cooking stoves are used by 34.3 per cent of total households in Tonga, posing risks to health, environment and climate.
The renewable energy share in TFEC was calculated as 25.17 per cent in 2018. Figure 2 shows Tonga’s electricity generation after losses. The planned installed capacity addition is based on data from the Tonga Power Limited (TPL) Business Plan 2020-2025 (TPL, 2020). The planned installed capacity was to meet the strategic objective of 50 per cent electricity generation from renewable energy sources by 2020. This includes 6 MW Sunergise Solar IPP, China Wind 2.2 MW, Wind IPP 3.8 MW, 6 MW GET Solar IPP and 6 MW Solar Farm Extension.
Current policy focus encompasses end-use energy efficiency and generation efficiency measures to reduce diesel fuel usage, and to promote financially and environmentally sustainable energy access.
Under TERM, the goal is to improve system-wide energy efficiency by 18 per cent against a BAU scenario. This includes the reduction of diesel use by 50 per cent in power generation and the decrease in losses of power distribution. The NDC document stipulated a target for reducing the electricity line losses to 9 per cent, which was achieved in 2017.
In addition, Tonga Power Limited is targeting about 5 per cent reduction in diesel use. TERM prioritizes demand-side management measures, particularly lighting, such as the use of LED or dimming for streetlights, and compact fluorescent lights (CFLs) in government, residential, commercial and religious sectors.
3.3. National energy policies and targets
Scenario development has been based on energy policies and assumptions, as summarized in table 1 as well as taking into consideration relevant policies (listed below) that are already in place (ESCAP, 2020).
• Tonga Energy Roadmap 2010-2020 (GoT, 2010): The objective of TERM is to lay out a least-cost approach and implementation plan to reduce Tonga’s vulnerability to oil price shocks, and to achieve an increase in quality access to modern energy services in a financially and environmentally sustainable manner. The recommendations include:
» Improvements in the petroleum supply chain to reduce the price and price fluctuations of imported petroleum products;
» Efficiency of conversion of petroleum to electricity (i.e., increases in efficiency and reduced transmission and distribution losses);
» Efficiency of conversion of electricity into consumer electricity services (i.e., end-use efficiency measures); and
» Replacing a portion of current or future grid- based generation with renewable energy.
• TSDFII 2015-2025 – A more progressive Tonga: Enhancing our inheritance. The SDFII prioritizes universal access to modern energy sources, including decreased dependence on fossil fuels, increased utilization of renewable energy resources and improving energy Figure 2. Tonga electricity generation after losses, 2018
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Solar Diesel PP Wind PP
GENERATION (GWH)
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3. Overview of Tonga’s energy sector
efficiency is critical to the vision. The TSDFII targeted 48% of renewable energy usage by 2018, increasing to 50 per cent by 2025 (GoT, 2015).
• Tonga Climate Change Policy – A resilient Tonga by 2035. The policy is focused towards building a resilient Tonga by 2035 to encompass an integrated approach to adaptation, disaster risk reduction and mitigation. A target for 100 per cent renewable energy by 2035 is outlined (MEIDECC, 2016).
• Renewable Energy Act 2008 – The Act regulates the use of renewable energy in Tonga. It promotes the development of the renewable energy industry, establishes the Renewable Energy Authority and its functions and powers, and regulates renewable energy agreements. The primary purpose of this Act is to provide a legal framework to promote the utilization of renewable energy in Tonga, through the creation of a conducive and an enabling market environment (GoT, 2008).
• Outer Islands Renewable Project – The Tonga Outer Island Renewable Energy Project (OIREP) will construct Solar Photovoltaic (PV) power plants on eight outer islands, with a total installed capacity of 1.25 MWp (GEF, 2016).
• Tonga Renewable Energy Project – The Tonga Renewable Energy Project is a US$ 53.2 million that will construct a battery energy storage system (BESS) on the main island and the outer island and five solar mini-grids on five outer islands.
• Tonga’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) – Tonga’s NDC outlines clear targets for reducing the Kingdom’s contribution to climate change (Kingdom of Tonga, 2015):
» Fifty per cent of electricity generation from renewable energy sources by 2020;
» Seventy per cent of electricity generation from renewable energy sources by 2030;
» Improved energy efficiency through the reduction of electricity line losses to 9 per cent by 2020 (from a baseline of 18 per cent in 2010)
3.4. National energy resource assessment
Tonga has abundant renewable energy resource potential in solar, wind and biomass energy resources. The Pacific Islands Renewable Energy Project (PIREP) assessed the potential
of renewable energy resources in Tonga. Solar energy has high potential in Tonga; satellite imagery indicates average insolation of up to 5.8 kWh/m2/day. According the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL, 2010) the estimated solar energy potential is 767,297 MWh/per year.
Wind energy resource data are limited in Tonga.
A wind energy resource assessment on the main island of Tongatapu indicates annual mean wind speeds of 6.8 m/s (Palmer-Wilson, 2012).
Biomass energy is limited to a small quantity of sawmill wastes associated with milling operations.
Agricultural and forest wastes are not considered as exploitable energy resources in Tonga. Coconut oil (CNO) is a potential biofuel for substituting up to 50 per cent of imported diesel oil in existing engines. The resource assessment is based on estimates, and an in-depth study is required to ensure adequate supply for energy generation.
3.5. National energy balance
The national energy balance of Tonga, 2018, from MEIDECC is the starting point of the NEXSTEP analysis. Tonga is dependent on petroleum imports to meet energy demand requirements.
The dependency is highlighted in TERM, which states that petroleum fuel accounts for 25 per cent of all imports and almost 10 per cent of GDP.
Biomass, domestically sourced, is mainly used in the residential sector by households as a source of cooking fuel. The solar and wind power share in the Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) is planned to increase due to investments in the renewable power project. Figure 3 shows that TPES of Tonga is 48,000 tonnes of oil equivalent (kTOE) by fuel share. Fuel shares in TPES are oil products (39 kTOE – 81 per cent) and biomass (9 kTOE – 19 per cent).
Total Final Energy Consumption (TFEC) in 2018 was reported as 37 kTOE (figure 4). Tonga’s TFEC in 2018, by fuel, is led by oil products (23 kTOE – 62.7 per cent), biomass (9 kTOE – 24.7 per cent) and electricity (5 kTOE – p 12.6 per cent).
3.6. Energy modelling projections
The energy demand is calculated using the activity level and energy intensity in the LEAP model. Tonga’s energy outlook for 2020-2030 is influenced by population growth of 0.2 per cent per annum, GDP growth of 0.7 per cent annually and energy elasticity for each sector. The methodology and assumptions are explained below for each
demand sector and a summary is presented in table 1:
• Residential sector population growth is modelled at 0.2 per cent per year, household size decreases from 5.53 in 2018 to 4.5 by 2030 (SPC, 2016) and urbanization remains the same. Ownership of appliances is projected to increase over the period (NREL, 2018);
• The transport sector is influenced by the population growth rate of 0.2 per cent per year and an increase in passenger-km due to an increase in per capita GDP of 2.4 per cent per year (estimate). Freight-km is similar with a projected increase of 2.4 per cent per year over the period of analysis;
• The industry sector in Tonga is very small;
however, it is projected to increase by 3 per cent annually;
• The commercial sector forecast is based on historical growth in commercial floor space during 2008-2018, which is extrapolated to 2035, while energy intensity remains constant;
• The agriculture sector is projected to increase
at the same rate as the GDP growth rate of 0.7 per cent per year.
3.7. Energy demand outlook
3.7.1. Business as usual scenarioIn the business-as-usual scenario, TFEC is expected to increase from 37 kTOE in 2020 to 40 kTOE in 2030. The current fuel mix in the energy system is expected to continue to 2030 in the absence of any major intervention. In 2030, the transport sector will have the largest share of TFEC at 25 kTOE (63 per cent), followed by the residential sector at 9 kTOE (23 per cent), commercial sector at 4 kTOE (10 per cent), industrial sector at 1 kTOE (3 per cent) and agricultural sector at 1 kTOE (3 per cent).
3.7.2. Current policy scenario
In the current policy scenario, TFEC is projected to show a similar growth rate from 37 kTOE in 2020 to 40 kTOE in 2030 (figure 5). The current fuel mix in the energy system is expected to continue to 2030 in the absence of any major intervention. In 2030, the transport sector will have the largest share of TFEC at 25 kTOE (63 per cent), followed by the residential sector at 9 kTOE (23 per cent), commercial sector at 4 kTOE (10 per cent), industrial sector at 1 kTOE (3 per cent) and agricultural sector at 1 kTOE (3 per cent). The sectoral overview of energy demand in the current policy scenario is discussed below.
(a) Transport sector
The transport sector’s energy demand will continue to dominate Tonga’s TFEC, and is projected to increase to 24.6 kTOE by 2030, compared with 18.5 kTOE in 2018. In 2030, the subsector share of transport energy demand will be passenger transport at 11.5 kTOE (47 per cent), freight at 11.6 kTOE (47 per cent) and aviation at 1.5 kTOE (6 per cent).
(b) Residential
The residential sector’s demand in Tonga is projected to decrease to 9.2 kTOE by 2030, compared with 13 kTOE in 2018. In 2030, the subsector share of residential energy demand will be urban at 2.1 kTOE (23 per cent), and rural at 7.1 kTOE (77 per cent). The residential sector energy demand outlook is influenced by the replacement of traditional biomass cooking stoves (10-20 per cent efficiency) by energy efficient LPG cooking stoves (56 per cent efficiency).
Figure 3. Total primary energy supply
80.8%
19.2%
Oil products Biomass
Figure 4. Total final energy consumption
62.7%
24.7%
12.6%
Oil products Biomass Electricity
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3. Overview of Tonga’s energy sector
(c) Commercial
The commercial sector’s energy demand is projected to increase from 3 kTOE in 2018 to 4.3 kTOE in 2030. The sector is divided into existing buildings and new buildings. In 2030, the subsector share of commercial energy demand will be existing buildings at 3.1 kTOE (72 per cent) and new buildings at 1.2 kTOE (28 per cent). The commercial sector analysis is based on floor
Table 1. Important factors, targets and assumptions used in modelling Parameters Business as usual Current policy
scenario Sustainable
Development Goal
Economic growth 0.7 per cent
Population growth 0.2 per cent
Population 100,651
Household 18,198
Household size 5.53 persons /household
Commercial floor
space 8,274,905.19 m2 (MEIDECC data)
Transport activity Transport sector is influenced by population growth rate of 0.2% per year and an increase in passenger-km due to increase in per capita GDP of 2.4% per year (estimate).
Access to
electricity 2021: 100% 2021: 100% 2021: 100%
Access to clean
cooking fuels Based on historical rate of improvement
Based on historical rate of improvement and
current policies
100 per cent access to clean cooking fuels and
technologies by 2030
Energy efficiency Remains constant Improvement based on current policy
0.07 per cent annual improvement in TPES
target achieved Power plant Based on 2018 share TPL Business Plan 2020-
2025 Based on least-cost
optimization
space occupied by the sector and the energy intensity per square metre.
(d) Industrial sector
Energy demand in the industrial sector was reported to be only 0.7 kTOE in 2018, since Tonga’s manufacturing sector is very small and is projected to increase to 1.0 kTOE by 2030.
Figure 5. Tonga’s energy demand outlook, 2020-2030
- 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 TOTAL FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION (THOUSAND TOE)
Residential Transport Industry Commercial Agriculture
4. SDG scenario: achieving SDG 7 by 2030
SDG scenario:
Achieving SDG 7 by 2030
4.
14
4. SDG scenario: Achieving SDG 7 by 2030
Access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy is essential to achieving the 2030 agenda for SDGs and the Paris Agreement on climate change. This chapter provides details of the SDG scenario. It starts with the energy demand forecast and then discusses the energy sector in relation to SDG goals and targets. It also examines the potential for Tonga in achieving the NDC unconditional target.
4.1. SDG energy demand outlook
In the SDG scenario, TFEC increases from 36 kTOE in 2020 to 38 kTOE in 2030. The reduction of 2 kTOE in TFEC in this scenario, compared to the other scenarios, is due to the improvement in energy efficiency as per the SDG 7 targets.
In 2030, the transport sector will have the largest share of TFEC at 25 kTOE (66 per cent), followed by the residential sector at 7 kTOE (14 per cent), commercial sector at 4 kTOE (11 per cent), industrial sector at 1 kTOE (3 per cent) and agricultural sector at 1 kTOE (3 per cent). Figure 6 shows TFEC by scenarios in 2030.
4.2. SDG 7 targets
4.2.1. SDG 7.1.1. Access to electricity Based on the historical improvement rate, Tonga is on track to achieve the universal access to electricity by 2021. The electricity demand in the SDG scenario will increase from 58 GWh in 2020 to 81 GWh in 2030.
4.2.2. SDG 7.1.2. Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking
Under current policies, Tonga’s population with access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking is projected to increase from 65.3 per cent in 2018 to 92.2 per cent in 2030. Despite this progress, Tonga will fall short of the target of universal access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking, with 8,041 people (1,787 households) relying on inefficient and hazardous cooking fuels and technologies.
In the SDG scenario, various technologies and options have been analysed and compared with the baseline technology to identify the most appropriate avenue to achieving this target. These
include LPG cooking stoves, electric cooking stoves, improved cooking stoves and biogas cooking stoves.
4.2.3. Clean cooking technologies evaluated
(a) Electric cooking stoves
Tonga has renewable electricity generation potential and can use this generation to promote electric cooking stoves. The technology is classed as Level 5 in the World Bank MTF for Indoor Air Quality Measurement. Electric cooking stoves are more efficient than other types of cooking stoves, including gas stoves. Electric cooking stoves can be generally divided into two types – solid plate and induction plate. While solid plate uses a heating element to pass radiant energy onto the food and reaches about 70 per cent efficiency, induction plate cooking stoves use electromagnetic energy to directly heat pots and pans, and can be up to 90 per cent efficient.
However, feedback from the stakeholder consultation workshop suggests that the high electricity tariff of Tonga would be a challenge for the adoption of electric cooking stoves, as the rural households would not be able to afford the running cost of the technology.
(b) Improved cooking stoves
Studies suggest that ICS programmes often have low adoption rates due to inconvenience of use, preference for traditional cooking stoves, the need for frequent maintenance and repairs etc. ICS programmes initially require strong advocacy to promote adoption, after which they require ongoing follow-up, monitoring, training, maintenance and repairs in order to ensure continuing usage. Based on WHO guidelines for emission rates for clean
