Ik;kZoj.k ds vuqdwy 'kgjh ifjogu O;oLFkk ds fy, uhfr;ksa dh leh{kk % fnYyh dh fLFkfr dk v/;;u
dhfrZ Hk.Mkjh] iwf.kZek ifjnk] uhfyek pØcrhZ ,oa dkfeuh xqIrk
lh,lvkbZvkj & dsUnzh; lM+d vuqla/kku laLFkku] ubZ fnYyh 110 025
lkjka'k % 'kgjh ifjogu fdlh Hkh 'kgj ds fodkl esa egRoiw.kZ Hkwfedk fuHkkrk gSA ;g ÅtkZ dh [kir vkSj ok;q iznw"kd mRltZuksa dk izeq[k {ks=k Hkh gSA i;kZoj.k ÅtkZ [kir ij ifjogu ds izHkko dks de djus dh uhfr;ksa ds izHkko dh leh{kk ds fy, bl 'kks/k&i=k esa fnYyh esa ;k=kh ifjogu O;oLFkk dks ,d leL;k ds rkSj ij fy;k x;k gS vkSj vk/kkj o"kZ 2006&2020 rd dks ifjn`'; vkdyu ds fy, ,d xfr'khy ekWMy iz.kkyh dk fodkl fd;k x;k gSA ;g ik;k x;k gS fd dqN uhfr;ksa ds dk;kZUo;u ls 2020 esa CO2, CH4, CO, NMVOC ,oa SO2 ds mRltZu esa Øe'k% 7&14] 7&15] 4&9] 12&23 ,oa 11&23»
deh vkSj ÅtkZ ds mi;ksx esa egRoiw.kZ deh vk,xhA cl] dkj ,oa nqifg;k okguksa ij fo'ks"k /;ku nsus dh vko';drk gS rkfd muds i;kZoj.k ij iM+us okys izHkko dks de fd;k tk ldsA ysfdu ,evkjVh,l c<+rh gqbZ ÅtkZ ekax vkSj mlls lacaf/kr ok;q iznw"k.k dks de djus esa ,d egRoiw.kZ lk/ku gks ldrk gSA jsy usVodZ dk rsth ls foLrkj] bZa/ku mi;ksx esa deh] lM+d usVodZ ds fodkl esa deh djuk vkSj bZa/ku ij vfrfjDr dj yxkuk dqN ,slh uhfr;ka gSa tks i;kZoj.k ds vuqdwy ,d 'kgjh ifjogu O;oLFkk dks cukus esa lgk;d fl) gksaxhA
Assessment of policies towards an environmentally friendly urban transport system : A case study of Delhi, India
Kirti Bhandari, Purnima Parida, Nilima Chakraborti & Kamini Gupta
CSIR - Central Road Research Institute, New Delhi 110 025
Abstract
Urban transport plays an important role in city development and is also a leading sector in energy consumption and air pollutant emissions.
To examine the effectiveness of policies in reducing transport influences on environment and energy use, this paper takes passenger transport system in Delhi as a case and develops a system dynamics model for scenario analysis from the base year 2006 to 2020. It is found that the implementation of certain policies will lead to a significant reduction of energy use and emissions of CO2, CH4 CO, NMVOC, and SO2 by 7- 14, 7-15, 4-9, 12-23, 12-24, and 11-23%, respectively, in 2020. Bus, car, and two-wheeler need particular attention to mitigate their environmental impacts while MRTS would be an effective solution to restrict the booming energy demand and associated air pollutant emissions. The implications for policy are that accelerating the development of railway network, together with decreasing the fuel intensity, slowing down road network extension and imposing fuel taxes will be effective instruments to build an environmentally friendly urban transport system.
izLrkouk
fodkl'khy ns'kksa esa c<+rs 'kgjhdj.k ,oa yksxksa dh vk; esa o`f) gksus ls eksVj xkfM+;ksa dh vko';drk esa cgqr rsth ls o`f) gqbZ]
ysfdu lkoZtfud ifjogu iz.kkyh vkSj lM+d lqfo/kkvksa dh vkiwfrZ bldh ekax ls de gSA blds pyrs futh okguksa dh la[;k] ok;q iznw"k.k] HkhM+] yach ;k=kk esa le; vkfn esa rsth ls o`f) gqbZ gSA 'kgjh
ifjogu ds vLFkk;h fodkl ls fo'ks"k :i ls fnYyh cgqr izHkkfor gSA fnYyh Hkkjr dh jkt/kkuh gS] bldh vFkZO;oLFkk cgqr rsth ls c<+ jgh gS ,oa nqfu;k esa pkSFkk lcls iznwf"kr 'kgj gSA fnYyh esa eksVj okguksa dh la[;k 1995 esa 24 djksM+ Fkh] tks c<+dj 2008 esa 4-7 djksM+ rd igqap xbZ gSA ;g o`f) nksxquk ds cjkcj gS ysfdu vFkZO;oLFkk esa bl nkSjku ek=k 1-3 xquk dh o`f) gqbZ gSA lM+d
vk/kkfjr ifjogu dh la[;k esa o`f) gksus ls LFkkuh; ,oa oSf'od Lrj ij ok;q iznw"k.k dh leL;k iSnk gks xbZA 1990 ds n'kd esa fnYyh eksVj okgu dk ok;q iznw"k.k esa 64» fgLlk Fkk vkSj Hkfo";
esa blls Hkh T;knk o`f) gksxh1A fo'o Hkj esa ÅtkZ laj{k.k] i;kZoj.k laj{k.k] 'kgjh ifjogu ,oa okguksa ls mRltZu ds izca/ku dh vko';drk c<+h gSA 'kgjh ifjogu vkSj okguksa ds iznw"k.k dh mRltZu laca/kh izHkkoh dk;Zuhfr;ka vkSj uhfr;ka cukuk dkQh egRoiw.kZ vkSj vko';d gSA
ifjgogu uhfr;ksa vkSj i;kZoj.k ds izHkkoksa] eksVjhdj.k ds ladV dks laHkkyus ds fy, fofHkUu izdkj ds 'kks/k dk;Z fd, x, gSaA fo'o cSad ¼1997½ us rhu laLFkkxr vkSj rduhdh fØ;kvksa dk lkjka'k rS;kj fd;k gS] tks bl izdkj gS & bZa/ku dh dher esa c<+ksÙkjh] 'kgjh HkhM+&HkkM+ de djuk] vkSj ifjogu ÅtkZ ds mi;ksx rFkk mRltZu esa deh djus ds fy, batu izkS|ksfxdh esa lq/kkjA ifjogu vuqla/kku lekt vkSj ifjogu uhfr v/;;u ds 2004 esa orZeku ifjogu uhfr ij v/;;u fd;k x;kA bl v/;;u esa bZa/ku ds ewY; dk
fu/kkZj.k] 'kgjh HkhM+ esa deh ,oa bZa/ku esa rduhdh lq/kkj ij cy fn;k x;kA fof'k"V uhfr dks ;wjksih; Lrj ij baVjekWMy ifjogu ds i{k esa ,d ekWMy ds mRiknu cnyko dks ekius dh {kerk dk vkdyu fd;kA 'kgjh ifjogu uhfr;ksa vkSj muds izHkkoksa dh ,d J`a[kyk dk irk yxk;k x;k vkSj vk/kqfud ifjogu j.kuhfr ds fMtkbu ds fy, dk;Zokgh izLrqr dh xbZA ifjogu uhfr dh fLFkjrk ds ewY;kadu ds fy, ,d ekWMy ds <kaps dh LFkkiuk Hkh dh xbZA fiNys n'kdksa esa fnYyh ds 'kgjh ifjogu ds eqís ij 'kks/k fd;k x;k gSA oSf'od tyok;q ifjorZu 2006 esa mRltZu ekWMy dk iz;ksx djds dqN j.kuhfr;ka r; dh xbZa rkfd fnYyh fQj ls ifjogu vkSj iwokZuqekfur xzhu gkml ¼th,pih½ mRltZu xSl esa ,d thou pØ dk mi;ksx dj ldsA fnYyh ,oa eqacbZ ds okguksa dh la[;k esa o`f)]
ifjogu ÅtkZ dk mi;ksx ,oa CO2ds mRltZu ds laca/k esa yach oSdfYid ÅtkZ dk ekWMy viuk;k x;k2A
oLrqr% vf/kdrj v/;;u] ;k=kh ifjogu iz.kkyh ds ctk;
[kir ,oa i;kZoj.k ds izHkko ij dsafnzr gSaA blds vykok] tc
lkj.kh 1 — dqN p;fur o"kkZas esa fnYyh 'kgjh ifjogu O;oLFkk ds vfHky{k.k
nqifg;k frifg;k dkj VSDlh ,evkjVh,l 2 ,lth 4 ,lth th lh,uth th Mh lh,uth th lh,uth lh,uth bZ
;k=kh xfr'khyrk ¼fcfy;u@fdeh-½
2001 7-8 7-6 0-6 2-4 15-4 1-0 0-3 0-1 0-2 61-3 0-0
2006 15-2 15-5 0-5 3-5 25-9 2-2 1-1 0-1 0-5 86-4 14-7
Okh,u ¼gt+kj½
2001 797 811 32 18 873 9 5 4 4 18 47a
2006 1]087 1]370 25 37 1]248 10 10 6 6 23 61a
usVodZ yEckbZ ¼gt+kj fdeh-½
2001 28-5 28-5 28-5 28-5 28-5 28-5 28-5 28-5 28-5 28-5 0-05b
2006 31-2 31-2 31-2 31-2 31-2 31-2 31-2 31-2 31-2 31-2 0-07
Rkhozrk ¼xSlks- o Mhty gsrq yh-@fdeh-½
2001 0-02 0-02 0-03 0-04 0-07 0-06 0-08 0-04 0-10 0-20 &
2006 0-01 0-01 0-03 0-04 0-06 0-05 0-06 0-03 0-08 0-17 0-0004
bZa/ku ewY; ¼th ,oa Mh gsrq ;w,l ch@,y] lh,th gsrq ;w,lMh@,e3½
0-6 0-6 0-6 0-2 0-6 0-4 0-2 0-6 0-2 0-2 &
1-0 1-0 1-0 0-3 1-0 0-7 0-3 1-0 0-3 0-3 &
fVIi.kh % 2s ,oa 4s nks&LVªksd rFkk 4&LVªksd dk izfrfuf/kRo djrs gSa] th Mh] lh,uth ,oa bZ xSlksyhu] Mhty] laihfMr izkd`frd xSl ,oa fo|qr dk izrhd gSa A
izR;sd bZa/ku izdkj dk oh,u nkl ,oa ikfj[k ¼2004½ ds 'kks/ki=k ij vk/kkfjr gSA
¼v½ ,evkjVh,l dk LVs'ku uacj
¼c½ ,evkjVh,l ds eku 2002 ls vkjaHk gksrs gSaA
ifjogu uhfr;ksa dk ewY;kadu fd;k tkrk gS] fiNyk v/;;u vf/kdrj lS)kafrd lkj ,oa xq.kkRed fo'ys"k.k ij fuHkZj jgrk gS tcfd i;kZoj.kh; vuqdwy ifjogu iz.kkyh ds varxZr fu/kkZjdksa dk tks ekWMy foHkktu ij izHkko Mkyrs gSa] muds laca/k esa vkSj uhfr fufgrkFkZ ds Øec) ewY;kadu ds fy, 'kk;n gh dHkh o.kZu fd;k x;kA
lkexzh ,oa fof/k
vkadM+s % fnYyh esa 'kgjh ;k=kh ;k=kk ds fy, fofHkUu iz.kkfy;ksa dk mi;ksx djrs gSaA vU; Hkkjrh; 'kgjksa esa eksVj pkfyr ;k=kk lokZf/kd iz;qDr gksrh gSA 1998 esa fcuk eksVj xkM+h ,oa lkbfdy dh ;k=kk djus okys dqy ;k=kk djus okyksa dk 20» FkkA ysfdu ;s fjiksVZ 'kgjh ifjogu ds i;kZoj.k ds izHkkoksa dks de djus dh uhfr ij dsafnzr gSA lM+d ifjogu O;oLFkk esa nqifg;k] rhu ifg;k] xkM+h VSDlh] cl 'kkfey gS vkSj jsy iz.kkyh vk/kkfjr esVªks rhoz ifjogu lsok 'kkfey ¼,e-vkj-Vh-,l-½ gS tks fnYyh esa 2002 ls 'kq: gqbZ gSA ;s vkadM+s Vsjh ÅtkZ funsZf'kdk vkSj okf"kZd ¼ÅtkZ vkSj lalk/ku
laLFkku] 2007½ ds lzksrksa] fnYyh lkaf[;dh ¼fnYyh jk"Vªh; jkt/kkuh {ks=k dh ljdkj] 2008½ ls ladfyr gq, gSaA ;kstuk vk;ksx dh fjiksVZ] oSf'od tyok;q ifjorZu ¼2001½ nkl vkSj ikfj[k ¼2004½]
fo'o cSad ¼1997½ vkfn ds :i esa vkSj fofHkUu 'kks/k&i=kksa ,oa izdk'kuksa ls ladfyr gSA
Ng eksVj ;qDr okgu i)fr dh fo'ks"krk rFkk bZa/ku ds izdkj ls mlds foHkktu dks lkj.kh 1 esa n'kkZ;k x;k gSA fnYyh esa dqy vkokxeu djus okyksa dh la[;k 2001 esa 97 djksM+ izfr fdeh- Fkh]
tks fd 113» dh okf"kZd o`f) ls c<+dj 2006 esa 166 vjc izfr fdeh- gks xbZA 'kgjh ifjogu esa cl] nqifg;k okgu] dkj ,oa ,evkjVh,l eq[; :i ls 'kkfey gSaA budh fgLlsnkjh 2006 esa Øe'k% 52] 19] 18] ,oa 9» dh fgLlsnkjh FkhA rhu ifg;k okgu ,oa VSDlh dh o`f) nj nks ifg;k okgu ,oa dkj dh rqyuk esa de gqbZ gSA nqifg;k okgu] dkj ,oa ,evkjVh,l esa Øe'k% 15»] 12»
,oa 12» dh o`f) gqbZ ysfdu cl VSDlh ,oa rhu ifg;k okgu esa Øe'k% 7»] 7» ,oa 5» dh o`f) gqbZA
fp=k 1 — ekWMy dk fp=k
izfof/k % fp=k ¼1½ esa ,d ekMy ds izokg ds vkjs[k dks n'kkZ;k x;k gSA izR;sd rhj ,d nwljs ds izHkko dks n'kkZrk gS] vk;r] Mke.M] vkSj o`r Øe'k% Lrj] fLFkj] ,oa lgk;d dks n'kkZrs gSaA ikWojfle ekMfyax dks n`'; lkW¶Vos;j ds :i esa iz;ksx fd;k tkrk gSA lkekU;r% 'kgjh ifjogu esa ÅtkZ dh [kir ,oa ok;q iznw"k.k ds mRltZu esa deh djuk eq[; y{; gSA bl y{; dks lkdkj djus ds fy, okgukas dh dk;Z{kerk] ;krk;kr usVodZ dk foLrkj] jsy LVs'ku dh o`f) ,oa ,e-vkj-Vh-,l- dh ;k=kh {kerk dk foLrkj baZ/ku ij dj] bZ/ku dh izxk<+rk esa deh ;s Ng ekWMy ¼,e-,l-½ ;k=kh xfr'khyrk ds fy, djrs gSaA i;kZoj.k ds vuqdwy ifjogu iz.kkyh dh fgLlsnkjh dks c<+kus ls] 'kgjh ifjogu iz.kkyh dh ;kstuk ds y{;ksa esa dqN i;kZoj.kh; ykHk mRiUu gksus dh mEehn gS A o"kZ 2001 ls 2006 rd ds ,df=kr vkadM+kas dks vk/kkj ekudj Hkfo"; esa eksVj okgu ,oa ,e,l dk irk fd;k tkrk gS rkfd Hkfo"; esa ÅtkZ dh {kerk ,oa ok;q iznw"kd mRltZu dk ewY;kadu fd;k tk ldsA loZizFke ,d yksp vk/kkfjr izfrxeu fof/k ¼oh-,u-½ ds iz{ksi.k ds fy, iz;ksx fd;k tkrk gSA lkoZtfud ,oa futh okguksa ds vyx lehdj.k dk iz;ksx djds okguksa ds fu/kkZjdksa dk vkdyu djrs gaS ¼varjkZ"Vªh;
ÅtkZ ,tsalh 2001] fo'o lrr~ 2004 fodkl ds fy, O;kikj ifj"kn~½A
futh okguksa ds fy,
VNiJ/Capita=ai+bi (income per capita)
lkoZtfud okguksa ds fy,
CNi,t = ai+bi GD Pt (1)
tgk¡ i ,oa t Øe'k% lk/ku ,oa o"kZ dks n'kkZrk gSA ekuk x;k gS fd izfr O;fDr futh okgu nqifg;k ,oa dkj iwjh rjg ls izfr O;fDr vk; ls lacaf/kr gSaA tcfd lkoZtfud ifjogu ds lk/ku tSls frifg;k] VSDlh vkSj cl ¼th- Mh- ih-½ esa cnyko ls vUrjlacaf/kr gaSA ifj.kke lkj.kh 2 esa n'kkZ, x, gaSA
,d Øfer rjhdk vfr egRoiw.kZ Lora=k O;atuksa dks pquus esa cgqlajsf[krk ls cpus esa l{ke gSA lM+d ,oa jsy lacaf/kr iz.kkfy;ksa ds fy, ,e-,l- dk vkdyu djus ds fy, fuEufyf[kr la?k"k.kZ fun'kZ ¼Regression Models½ iz;ksx fd, x, gSaA
lM+d vk/kkfjr iz.kkyh
MS.iJ.t = ci,J+ a1,i,J VNi,J,t +a2i, JNETi,J,t +a3,i,J FCi,J,t + a4, i,J,T
jsy vk/kkfjr iz.kkyh
MSMRTS,t= C+a1 CAPt+a2 NETt + a3 STNt + a4 Tt (2)
tgk¡ K bZa/ku ds izdkj dks n'kkZrk gSA
CAP = Passanger Capacity tks fd MRTS ds MS ij ldkjkRed izHkko Mkyrk gS vkSj NET - Traffic Network length. ftlesa MRTS Lines vkSj lM+dsa 'kkfey gSaA MS ds izo/kZu esa latky yEckbZ dk foLrkj ,d cgqr gh egRoiw.kZ dkjd gSA
FC= Fuel cost transport unit (Fuel price X Fuel Intensity)
jktdks"kh; uhfr ds varxZr bZa/ku dj dk vkjksi.k bl fof/k ls fudkyk tk ldrk gSA fdlh Hkh ,d rjhds dk FC ftruk T;knk gksxk og mruk gh de vkd"kZd gksxk] STN- jsy LVs'ku la[;k gS tks fd MRTS rd igqap dk ,d lwpd gSA
t = time trend variable gSA
ftldh ek=kk 2001&2006 dh chp 1&6|; C= ,d vpj gS
¼lkj.kh 3½A
R2 ,d mPp ewY; izR;sd n'kk esa n'kkZrk gS fd O;k[;kf;r O;atdksa dk jsf[kd la;ksx MSdk vkdyu djus esa iw.kZr% fo'oluh;
gSA rhljk ;g v/;;u 'kgjh ;k=kh ifjogu ls fudys ok;q iznw"kdksa dk nks lanHkZ esa vkdyu djrk gSA CO2 ,oa CH4 mRltZu oSf'od izHkko okyh nks izeq[k xzhu gkml xSl CO dk mRltZu xSj ehFksu ok"i'khy dkcZfud ;kSfxd (NMVOC) vkSj Sp2 izeq[kr% LFkkuh;
izHkko okys tyok;q ifjorZu ij varlZjdkjh lfefr }kjk izfrikfnr rjhds dks viuk;k x;k gSA
lkj.kh 2 — izf{kIr eksVj VNs gsrq izkpy
, ch vkj2
nqifg;k okgu 0.077 3.0x10-6 0.89
(5.14) (5.80)
fRkifg;k okgu -19,470.7 1.6x10-7 0.94
(-2.16) (8.33)
dkj 0.017 2.1x10-6 0.92
(1.95) (7.19)
VSDlh -8,901.8 4.4x10-8 0.97
(-4.83) (11.43)
cl 11,001.9 1.8x10-8 0.98
(26.65) (20.70)
ECJ,t = ι∑PKM X MSi, J,t X FIi,J,t X aj
EMm,t = ∑ECJ,t X bm,J (3)
tgka m = ok;q iznw"k.k dks n'kkZrk gSA
EC = [kir
EM = mRltZu
PMK = dqy ;k=kh xfr'khyrk
F1 = bZa/ku dh {kerk
A= heat Conversion Factor Gasoline = 3-2 X 107 J/L.
Diesel = 3/6 X 107 J/m3 CNG = 3.9 X 107 J/n3
B = emission factor per unit heat generation
¼lkj.kh 4½A
;fn fooj.k m ok;q iznw"kd dk lwpd gS] rks EC = [kir]
EM = mRltZu] PKM = dqy ;k=kh xfr'khyrk] F1 = bZa/ku l?kurk] a = rki ifjorZu dkjd dk lwpd gS] ftldk ewY;
xSlksyhu ds fy, 3-2 × 107 ts@,y] Mhty ds fy, 3-6 × 107 ts@,y] lh,uth ds fy, 3-9 × 107 ts@,e3 vkSj fo|qr ds fy, 3-6 × 106 ts@ds MCY;w ,p fy;k tkrk gS] vkSj b mRltZu dkjd izfr ;wfuV rki mRiknu fd;k tkrk gS ¼lkj.kh 4½A
ifjogu uhfr;ka ,oa fMtkbu ifjn`';
Hkkjr esa fofHkUu ea=kky; ,oa ,tsafl;ka ifjogu ls lacaf/kr uhfr;ka cukus esa 'kkfey gSaA lM+d ifjogu ,oa jktekxZ ea=kky;]
;kstuk vk;ksx }kjk 1980 ls vc rd ÅtkZ [kir ,oa okgu iznw"k.k ds izca/ku ds fy, fu/kkZfjr eq[; uhfr dks n'kkZ;k x;k gS ¼lkj.kh 5½A blesa ik;k x;k gS fd xgu ifjogu uhfr;ka lkekU;r%
lkoZtfud ifjogu dks izksRlkfgr djus vkSj bZa/ku cpkus ds y{;ksa ds lkFk ykxw dh xbZ gSA blds vykok Hkkjr ljdkj us bZa/ku dj vkSj okf"kZd iFkdj dks] okgu iznw"kdksa dks de djus ds ,d jktdks"kh; gfFk;kj ds rkSj ij izLrkfor fd;k gS9A
Xkr ifjogu uhfr;ksa vkSj orZeku 'kks/kksa dh leh{kk ds vk/kkj ij ge 'kgjh ifjogu ,oa i;kZoj.kxr uhfr;ksa ds izHkko ds vkdyu ds rhu ifjn`';ksa dh jpuk djrs gSaA fof'k"V ifjekih fLFkfr;ka lkj.kh 6 esa n'kkZbZ xbZ gaSA lEiw.kZr%] fnYyh esa eksVj ifjogu lapj.k dh okf"kZd fodkl nj Øe'k% 8-8» vkSj 8-7» ik;h xbZ12A eksVj
VN ds iz{ksi.k ds Input ds :i esa fnYyh esa izfr O;fDr vk;]
tula[;k GDP esa 2006 ls 2020 rd Øe'k% 8] 2-8] ,oa 5»
dh vkSlr okf"kZd fodkl nj ekuh xbZ gSA
O;fDrxr :i "Business as usual" BAU ifjn`';] bZa/ku [kir] MRTS LVs'ku la[;k] ;k=kh {kerk] VN ifjogu lapkj ra=k dh yEckbZ esa cnyko ds orZeku pyu rFkk fcuk baZ/ku esa vf/kd dj lfgr n'kkZrk gSA
fVIi.kh % ,evkjVh,l iz.kkyh vk/kkfjr fo|qr ls ok;q iznw"kd mRltZu dk vuqeku yxkus ds fy, Hkkjr esa vkSlr fo|qr mRiknu feJ.k dk mi;ksx bl izdkj fd;k tkrk gS % 70» dks;yk] 15»
gkbMªksbysfDVªd] 10» izkd`frd xSl vkSj 5» vU; ¼fo'o tyok;q
lkj.kh 4 — izR;sd ok;q iznw"kd dk Vu@Vhts esa mRltZu dkjd
CO2 CH2 CO NMVOC SO2
xSlksyhu 68-61 0-02 8 1-5 4-65 × 10&8
Mhty 73-33 0-005 1 0-2 1-41 × 10&7
lh,uth 55-82 0-05 0-6 0-4 ux.;
fo|qr 73-91 9-5×10&4 0-24 0-017 0-35
lkj.kh 3 — fnYyh 'kgjh ifjogu O;oLFkk 2001&2006 esa ekWMy 'ks;j ds fu/kkZjd
Two wheeler Three wheeler Car Taxi Bus MRTS
2s-G 4s-G G CNG G D CNG G CNG CNG E
C 10.1 7.4 -0.4 1.4 13.5 0.7 0.5 0.03 0.1 52.4 6.8 C
(89.9) (12.6) (-8.7) (7.1) (267.0) (32.7) (39.8) (28.8) (18.2) (87.3) (138.3) VN 3.3×10-7 2.4×10-7 1.2×10-5 3.0×10-5 5.2×10-7 1.6×10-5 3.0×10-6 6.9×10-7 1.2×10-5 3.0×10-5 0.3 CAP
(13.7) (7.6) (21.0) (10.2) (14.3) (8.7) (7.1) (71.2) (23.4) (8.6) (18.3) NET 1.8×10-5 1.7×10-4 2.3×10-5 3.6×10-5 1.6×10-5 1.1×10-5 2.1×10-6 7.4×10-7 3.6×10-6 5.2×10-4 0.01 NET
(10.5) (45.2) (28.0) (9.6) (13.9) (18.2) (22.9) (22.3) (27.8) (18.8) (9.4)
FC -3.0 -3.2 -0.1 -0.9 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.001 -0.03 -1.2 0.01 STN
(-30.3) (-7.3) (-19.5) (-10.7) (-13.8) (-24.0) (-24.7) (-20.3) (-18.9) (-22.5) (7.1)
T 0.03 0.06 -0.03 -0.1 0.3 0.03 0.04 -0.003 0.004 -1.2 dropped T
(7.2) (8.4) (-11.9) (8.6) (53.0) (24.6) (34.3) (-149.9) (7.5) (-28.4)
R2 0.92 0.91 0.95 0.95 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.95 0.95 0.98 0.97 R2
lkj.kh 5 — ÅtkZ laj{k.k ,oa iznw"kd mRltZu 'keu ls lacaf/kr ifjogu uhfr;ka
1988 eksVj okgu vf/kfu;e ¼lM+d ifjogu vf/kfu;e dk iquewZY;kadu vkSj fiNys vf/kfu;e ds izko/kkuksa dks v|ru vkSj jktekxZ foHkkx½ djuk] Lopkfyr okguksa ds fofu;eksa vkSj mi;ksx ls
lacaf/kr fu;e] ekud vkSj izfØ;k rS;kj djuk] mRltZu ds ekud
r; djukA
1989 dsanzh; eksVj okgu fu;ekoyh ¼Hkkjr ljdkj½ iwjs ns'k esa ykxw djus ds fy, ,d leku fu;e cukuk] eksVj okguksa ds mRiknu] fuekZ.k] vuqj{k.k vkSj miLdjksa ds laaca/k esa eq[; :i ls vis{kkvksa dks iwjk djus ds fy, okgu laca/kh ekinaM rS;kj djukA
2003 vkWVks bZa/ku uhfr ¼Hkkjr ljdkj½ n{k okgu] Dyhuj bZa/ku ds fy, ekud r; djukA
2006 ÅtkZ uhfr ¼;kstuk vk;ksx½ ÅtkZ lqj{kk eqís dk lek/kku % ifjogu lfgr dbZ {ks=kksa esa ÅtkZ dh l?kurk dks de djds ÅtkZ n{krk esa lq/kkj djus ds fy, uhfr dh vis{kk,aA 2006 jk"Vªh; gkbMªkstu ÅtkZ jksM eSi ¼Hkkjr ljdkj½ H2 'kfDr izkIr bZa/ku lsy vk/kkfjr okguksa ds fodkl ds mís'; ls Hkkoh
ifjogu ds fy, xzhu igyA lkj.kh 6 — ifjn`'; vfHkdYi vkSj vfHk/kkj.kk,a
uhfr ds fodYi ch , ;w e/; fu;a=k.k mPp fu;a=k.k
vf/kd n{k okgu okf"kZd 'ks;j lao`f) nj % okf"kZd 'ks;j lao`f) nj % okf"kZd 'ks;j lao`f) nj % ds 'ks;j dk izksUu;u nqifg, ¼4,l&th½ 0-8» nqifg, ¼4,l&th½ 3» nqifg, ¼4,l&th½ 4-5»
frifg;s¼lh,uth½ 3-1» frifg;s¼lh,uth½ 3-8» frifg;s¼lh,uth½ 4-5»
dkj ¼Mh½ 19-7» dkj ¼Mh½ 25» dkj ¼Mh½ 30»
dkj ¼lh,uth½ 8-5» dkj ¼lh,uth½ 25» dkj ¼lh,uth½ 30»
VSDlh ¼lh,uth½ 0» VSDlh ¼lh,uth½ 1» VSDlh ¼lh,uth½ 1-5»
VSfjQ ra=k dk foLrkj okf"kZd 'ks;j lao`f) nj % okf"kZd 'ks;j lao`f) nj % okf"kZd 'ks;j lao`f) nj %
lM+d % 1-8» lM+d % 2» lM+d % 2-2»
jsy % 7-5» jsy % 8-5» jsy % 10»
,evkjVh,l ;k=kh {kerk okf"kZd 'ks;j lao`f) nj % okf"kZd 'ks;j lao`f) nj % okf"kZd 'ks;j lao`f) nj %
dh o`f) 3» 4» 5»
,evkjVh,l LVs'ku la[;k LVs'ku la[;k dh okf"kZd LVs'ku la[;k dh okf"kZd LVs'ku la[;k dh okf"kZd
dh o`f) lao`f) nj % 7-5» lao`f) nj % 8-5» lao`f) nj % 10»
bZa/ku djksa dh ysoh dksbZ bZa/ku dj ugha bZa/ku dh vkS|ksfxr ykxr bZa/ku dh vkS|ksfxd ykxr dk
dk 35» 50»
bZa/ku l?kurk esa deh 2006&2020 esa 10» 2006&2020 esa 15» 2006&2020 esa 20»
dh deh dh deh dh deh
ifjorZu laca/kh ih bZ MCY;w dsanz 2001½ ifj.kke ,oa foospuk
fp=k 2 esa Hkfo"; esa ;k=kh vkokxeu ds ekWMy dks n'kkZ;k x;k gSA Hkfo"; esa ;krk;kr 8-7 okf"kZd o`f) ds nj ls 2020 rd 534 djksM+ gks tk,xkA BAU ifjn`'; ds vUrxZr 'kgjh vkokxeu esa cl dh Hkwfedk eq[; gSA nqifg;k okgu] dkj vkSj MRT 2006
esa Øe'k% 19] 18 ,oa 9» ls c<+dj 2020 esa Øe'k% 21] 22 ,oa 10» gks tk,xkA frifg;k okgu ,oa VSDlh dh Hkfo"; esa ?kVsxhA fu;a=k.k ifjn`'; ds vUrXkZr Hkfo"; dh uhfr;kas ls okgu ds mRltZu tSls CNG vkSj MRTS dks c<+kok feysxk vkSj O;fDrxr
;krk;kr iz.kkyh tSls nqifg;k okgu] dkj tks bZa/ku dh T;knk [kir djrs gaS mudh la[;k ?kV ldsA mPp fu;a=k.k ds ifjn`'; ds lanHkZ esa cl] dkj ,oa nqifg;k okguksa dh la[;k ds ifjpkyu esa deh gksxh
tksfd 2020 esa Øe'k% 45] 19 ,oa 18» jgsxhA blds vykok
MRTS, frifg;k ,oa VSDlh esa o`f) gksxh tksfd BAU ifjn`';
vkSj e/; fu;a=k.k ifjn`'; ds foifjr gSA bldh lk>snkjh 2020 esa Øe'k% 11] 6 ,oa 0-5» jgsxhA
fp=k 3 vkxkeh 2020 rd ds ;krk;kr ds bZa/ku dh [kir ds izpyu dks n'kkZrk gSA lkekU;r% fnYyh ifjogu {ks=k esa baZ/ku dh [kir 2020 rd c<+rh jgsxh@eq[;r% BAU ifjn`'; ds lanHkZ esa ekurs gSa fd ifjogu ÅtkZ dh [kir 2020 rd 208 Peta Jule igqap tk,xh@tcfd e/; ifjn`'; ,oa mPp ifjn`'; ds vUrxZr
;g vkadM+k Øe'k% 6-6» ,oa 14» dh nj ls ?kV ldrk gSA cktkj esa CNG dh fgLlsnkjh ?kVsxh ysfdu xSlksfyu] Mhty vkSj fctyh izR;sd ifjn`'; esa p<+ jgh gS tcfd uhfr fu;a=k.k ds dkj.k Hkfo";
esa cktkj esa xSlksyhu ,oa Mhty dh fgLlsnkjh c<+sxh ,oa CNG dh fgLlsnkjh ?kVsxhA tcfd fo|qr dh vko';drk vuqekur% rsth ls c<+sxhA 2020 bZ- rd esa BAU ifjn`'; ds vUrxZr CNG, xSlksyhu] Mhty ,oa fo|qr dh Hkkxhnkjh Øe'k% 44»] 53»]
2-5» ,oa 0-4» jgsxh tcfd mPp fu;a=k.k ifjn`'; esa Øe'k% 50]
47] 2-5 ,oa 0-5» jgsxhA
BAU ifjn`'; ds vUrxZr 2020 bZ- rd esa ifjogu dh fofHkUu iz.kkfy;ksa esa eq[;r% rhu iz.kkyh cl] dkj ,oa nqifg;k okgu dh fgLlsnkjh Øe'k% 43»] 38» ,oa 17» jgsxhA Ukhfr;ka tks mPp fu;a=k.k ifjn`'; dks leFkZu djrh gSa mlds bLrseky ls
CNG ,oa fctyh dh iz.kkyh dks c<+kok feysxkA ftlls fd cl]
VSDlh ,oa MRTS esa Øe'k% 49-1»] 0-2» ,oa 0-1» dh o`f) gksxh tcfd dkj] nqifg;k ,oa frifg;k okgu esa Øe'k% 33-4»]
16-1» ,oa 1-1» dh deh gksxhA
mRltZu esa deh djus ds fy, fp=k ¼4½ esa dqN [kkl o"kksZa esa fo'ks"k mRltZu iz.kkyh ,oa ifjogu iz.kkyh dks n'kkZ;k x;k gSA
BAU ifjn`'; ds vUrxZr 2020 esa CH2 ,oa CH4mRltZu ;s nks eq[; GHS 13.1 djksM+ ,oa 6900 Vu gks tk,xh tks fd 2006 dh rqyuk esa 2-6 ,oa 2-8 xquk T;knk gSA mPp fu;a=k.k ds ifjn`';
esa ;g ?kVdj 2020 esa 11-1 djksM+ ,oa 6200 Vu gks tk,xhA
fp=k 2 — fnYyh esa ;k=kh xfr'khyrk vkSj ekWMy fLIyV 2006&2020
CO2 ,oa CH4& 18 & 23»] nqifg;k okgu ls 17&18» CO2 ,oa 9&10» CH4 mRlZtu gksxkA 2020 eas BAO ifjn`'; ds vUrxZr CO, NMVOCvkSj SO2dk mRltZu c<+dj 92400]
167000 vkSj 6000 Vu gks tk,xkA bu lkjs mRltZuksa esa dkj dh Hkkxhnkjh eq[; gS tksfd CO-62&64»] NMVOC - 65&67»
,oa SO2-69&70» nqifg;k okgu dh lk>snkjh CO-31&32»
NMVOC-32&34» ,oa SP2 28&29»A ;gka ,d egRoiw.kZ ckr
;g gS fd ;k=kh vkokxeu esa MRTS dh Hkkxhnkjh 10&11» gSA tcfd blesa ÅtkZ dh [kir 0-04 ls 0-1» ds chp gS blds vykok fdlh Hkh nwljh iz.kkyh ls de iznw"k.k djrk gSA
fofHkUu uhfr;kas dk i;kZoj.k vkSj 'kgjh ifjogu ij izHkko ds ijh{k.k ds fy, fuEufyf[kr lehdj.k gS A
tgka S = fdlh fo'ks"k uhfr dh laosnu'khyrk o"kZ esa
EM= mRltZu dh {kerk
fp=k 4 — uhfr midj.kksa dh laosnu'khyrk fo'ys"k.k
CO2, CH4 ds mRltZu esa eq[; :i ls cl dh Hkkxhnkjh gksrh gS tks fd cl 38&44» CO2 ,oa 65&71» CH4 ] dkj 37&42»
fp=k 3 — ifjogu ÅtkZ ekax ¼d½ bZa/kuokj] ¼[k½ lk/kuokj 2006&2020
X = uhfr tks mRltZu dks izekf.kr djrk gS
EM ,oa x = mRltZu esa c<+ksÙkjh ;k dehA ge ekurs gSa fd 2006 ls 2020 ds nkSjku izfr midj.k izR;sd rhu o"kZ esa 10» dh o`f) gksrh gSA lM+d usVodZ eas mRltZu lcls T;knk gS tcfd vU;
iz.kkfy;ksa esa mRltZu mRltZu de gSA blds vykok ge ikrs gSa fd laosnu'khyrk dk lEiw.kZ vkdyu MRTS usVodZ ds foLrkj ls 1-73»] bZa/ku [kir ls 1-3»] jksM usVodZ ds foLrkj ls 0-73»]
vkSj bZa/ku dj ls 0-57» izHkkfor gksrh gSA dk;Zdq'ky okgu iz.kkyh ds izksRlkgu ls MRTS ;k=kh {kerk ,oa LVs'kuksa dh la[;k c<+rh gS ysfdu bldh laosnu'khyrk Øe'k% 14] 0-10 ,oa 0-07» gSA
fodkl'khy ns'kksa ds rsth ls c<++rs 'kgjksa esa mfpr uhfr;ksa dks ykxw dj 'kgjh ifjogu dks i;kZoj.k vuqdwy cukus dh t:jr gSA bl fjiksVZ esa ge fnYyh ds eksVj;qDr ;k=kh ifjogu dk fujh{k.k djds SDModel ds vkSj mldh ifjogu uhfr ,oa i;kZoj.k ls lacaf/kr izHkko dk fo'ys"k.k djrs gaSA ifj.kke ;g crkrs gSa fd 2006 ls 2020 ds nkSjku ÅtkZ dh vko';drk ,oa okgu mRltZu c<+sxh ijUrq blds de gksus dh Hkh mEehn cgqr gSA 2020 esa rqyukRed :i ls fu;a=k.k ifjn`'; esa dqN fo'ks"k uhfr;ksa dk bLrseky fd, fcuk ÅtkZ dh ekax 7&14» vkSj mRltZu esa CO2 7&15»] CO12 & 23»] NMVOC 12&24» ,oa SO2 12&23»
jgsxhA
2020 esa ;k=kh ifjogu esa 43&49» ÅtkZ dk bLrseky cl ifjpkyu esa gksxk tks fd eq[; :i ls CO2 38&44»] ,oa CH4 65&71» dk mRltZu djsxkA 2020 rd esa dkj 33&38»] nqifg;k 16&17»] ÅtkZ dk bLrseky djsxkA blds lkFk gh dkj CO
62&64» CoNMVOC 65&67» ,oa SO2 69&70» vkSj nqifg;k
CO 28&29» dk mRltZu djsxkA
'kgjh ifjogu esa fodkl ds lkFk&lkFk okgu mRltZu esa deh ykus ds fy, Hkjiwj iz;kl dh t:jr gSA MRTS dks vPNh rjg ykxw djus ls ÅtkZ [kir ,oa mRltZu esa deh vk,xhA
lHkh uhfr;ksa dk v/;;u dj laosnu'khy fo'ys"k.k ;g crykrs gSa fd jsyos usVodZ dk foLrkj lcls egRoiw.kZ rjhdk gSA ftlls fd bZa/ku [kir esa deh] lM+d usVodZ ds foLrkj dh t:jr] bZa/ku
dj ,oa iznw"k.k esa deh vkrh gSA
;g fjiksVZ fdlh Hkh rsth ls c<+rs gq, 'kgj dh mi;qDr uhfr dk pquko djus esa enn djrh gSA bl fjiksVZ esa Hkfo"; esa ;k=kh vkokxeu dh okf"kZd o`f) nj tks fd cgqr ifjorZu'khy gS] dks n'kkZ;k x;k gS ¼Pew Center on global climatical change½A tc ge ÅtkZ laj{k.k vkSj mRltZu dh ckr djrs gSa rc eksVj;qDr
;k=kh vkokxeu esa o`f) uhfr;ksa dks izHkkfor djrh gSA Hkfo"; ds dk;ksZa esa lq/kkj djus ds fy, fiNys fo'ys"k.k tks ÅtkZ laj{k.k vkSj mRltZu ls lacaf/kr gksa SD Ýse odZ rS;kj djus esa cgqr mi;ksxh gksrs gSaA
vkHkkj
ys[kd izks- ;ks'ksUVlqax g;k'kh }kjk fn, x, vewY; ekxZn'kZu vkSj lgk;rk rFkk MkW- th gku }kjk fn, x, lg;ksx vkSj lgk;rk ds fy, vkHkkjh gSaA foHkkxk/;{k] ifjogu ;kstuk izHkkx vkSj ;krk;kr]
bathfu;jh rFkk lqj{kk izHkkx ,oa fnYyh esVªks jsy fuxe ¼Mh,evkjlh½]
fnYyh esa fd, x, daI;wVj losZ{k.k gsrq mudk Hkh vkHkkj izdV djrs gSaA
lanHkZ
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ΔE Mt
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